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Region 13 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#91 of 101 in Division 4
#22 of 24 in Region 13
Strength of schedule #83 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #21 in D4 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 H #495 Marlington (0-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 12 (28%)
08/29 A #669 John F Kennedy (Cle.) (0-0) D3 R9, pick: W by 25 (90%)
09/04 A #439 Westlake (0-0) D2 R6, pick: L by 24 (9%)
09/12 A #522 Cleveland Central Cath. (0-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 12 (24%)
09/18 H #429 Lutheran East (0-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 22 (8%)
09/25 H #142 Maple Heights (0-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 43 (1%)
10/02 A #306 Brush (0-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 33 (2%)
10/08 H #198 Garfield Heights (0-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 38 (1%)
10/16 H #654 Richmond Heights (0-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/23 H #328 Bedford (0-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 29 (3%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.77 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R13 playoffs
Playoff chances now
11% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.18 ( 0.50-26.66) 26% in, 7% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), East (Akron) (0-0) 10%
Lose: 2.56 ( 0.00-22.78) 5% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Norton (0-0) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 9W: 18.08 (10.86-24.70) 100% in, 89% home, 21% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 21%
( 2%) 8W: 14.86 ( 9.35-21.52) 97% in, 54% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (0-0) 9%
( 3%) 7W: 12.08 ( 7.03-19.66) 86% in, 21% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Norton (0-0) 11%
( 6%) 6W: 9.72 ( 4.51-17.80) 55% in, 4% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), East (Akron) (0-0) 11%
( 9%) 5W: 7.65 ( 3.41-14.72) 21% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Norton (0-0) 14%
(14%) 4W: 5.54 ( 2.05-13.26) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), West Geauga (0-0) 10%
(21%) 3W: 3.77 ( 1.45- 9.48) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(25%) 2W: 2.21 ( 0.90- 7.01) out, proj. out
(15%) 1W: 0.90 ( 0.40- 5.65) out, proj. out
( 4%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Norton (0-0) 10%
East (Akron) (0-0) 9%
Rocky River (0-0) 8%
West Geauga (0-0) 8%
Hubbard (0-0) 8%
Most likely second round opponents
West Branch (0-0) 20%
Streetsboro (0-0) 19%
Poland Seminary (0-0) 12%
Rocky River (0-0) 10%
Norton (0-0) 7%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 69.2, #561, D4 #88), 20% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 67.3