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Region 13 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#90 of 105 in Division 4
#21 of 26 in Region 13
Strength of schedule #72 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #95 in D4 (-708 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 19-8 A #433 Marlington (2-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 10 (32%), perf. rating 76
08/29 W 70-0 H #669 John F Kennedy (Cle.) (0-4) D2 R5, pick: W by 27 (91%), perf. rating 98
09/05 L 42-27 H #471 Westlake (2-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 22 (11%), perf. rating 59
09/12 L 23-6 H #403 Cleveland Central Cath. (3-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 8 (32%), perf. rating 68
09/19 A #381 Lutheran East (1-3) D3 R9, pick: L by 26 (5%)
09/26 A #194 Maple Heights (3-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 38 (1%)
10/03 H #308 Brush (2-2) D3 R9, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/09 A #272 Garfield Heights (3-1) D2 R5, pick: L by 33 (1%)
10/17 H #512 Shaw (1-3) D5 R17, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/24 A #288 Bedford (2-2) D3 R9, pick: L by 32 (2%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
1.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R13 playoffs
Playoff chances now
unlikely to contend for playoffs
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.55 ( 2.30-15.50) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Lose: 1.70 ( 0.60-17.05) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 4W: 8.05 ( 5.95-11.55) out, proj. out
( 8%) 3W: 5.10 ( 2.75- 8.40) out, proj. out
(37%) 2W: 2.15 ( 1.60- 6.65) out, proj. out
(54%) 1W: 1.15 ( 0.60- 4.10) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LLWLWL: 5.55 ( 3.80- 7.30) out
( 1%) LLLWWL: 5.40 ( 4.30- 7.65) out
( 1%) LLLLWW: 4.80 ( 3.70- 6.50) out
( 2%) WLLLWL: 4.55 ( 2.75- 6.30) out
( 1%) LLWLLL: 4.00 ( 2.80- 6.35) out
( 2%) WLLLLL: 3.55 ( 2.30- 5.30) out
(32%) LLLLWL: 2.15 ( 1.60- 4.50) out
(54%) LLLLLL: 1.15 ( 0.60- 4.10) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 72.5, #545, D4 #90), unlikely to contend for playoffs, proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (1-2, 80.2, #500, D4 #86), 3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (1-1, 77.3, #528, D4 #88), 7% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 73.1, #546, D4 #92), 8% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 75.0, #536, D4 #91), 22% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 67.0