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Rankings
#27 of 100 in Division 2
#7 of 25 in Region 7
Strength of schedule #13 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #22 in D2 (+150 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 42-13 A #25 Indian Valley (3-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 15 (25%), perf. rating 124
08/28 W 28-7 H #243 Tallmadge (3-1) D3 R9, pick: W by 26 (90%), perf. rating 146
09/04 W 42-14 H #350 North Olmsted (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 29 (95%), perf. rating 141
09/11 W 24-20 A #115 Hoover (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 143
09/18 H #58 Jackson (Massillon) (2-2) D1 R1, pick: L by 7 (33%)
09/25 H #24 Canton McKinley (3-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 22 (8%)
10/02 A #197 GlenOak (1-3) D1 R1, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/09 A #105 Louisville (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/16 H #156 Perry (Massillon) (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/23 A #91 Lake (Uniontown) (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 2 (44%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
18.55 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#9 seed in R7 playoffs
Playoff chances now
83% (bubble if 4-6), 52% home (maybe if 6-4), 14% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 23.39 ( 9.77-34.39) 98% in, 83% home, 35% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 36%
Lose: 16.93 ( 6.40-31.21) 76% in, 37% home, 4% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Hamilton Township (2-2) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 9W: 31.56 (29.19-34.39) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(12%) 8W: 26.77 (23.44-32.32) 100% home, 68% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 68%
(22%) 7W: 22.43 (18.34-28.54) 100% in, 98% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Hamilton Township (2-2) 12%
(26%) 6W: 18.55 (14.66-24.91) 99% in, 52% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Hamilton Township (2-2) 18%
(20%) 5W: 15.12 (11.54-21.33) 81% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), New Albany (3-1) 15%
(12%) 4W: 12.35 ( 8.56-18.11) 28% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), New Albany (3-1) 21%
( 4%) 3W: 10.29 ( 6.40-13.92) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWW: 31.56 (29.19-34.39) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 9%) WLWWWW: 26.62 (23.44-30.46) 100% home, 66% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 66%
(10%) LLWWWW: 22.33 (19.45-26.37) 100% in, 99% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), bye 12%
(10%) LLWWWL: 18.40 (14.66-22.44) 99% in, 54% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Hamilton Township (2-2) 17%
( 7%) LLWLWW: 18.15 (14.76-22.29) 99% in, 41% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Hamilton Township (2-2) 23%
(10%) LLWLWL: 14.46 (11.54-19.06) 70% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), New Albany (3-1) 18%
( 6%) LLWLLL: 11.79 ( 8.86-15.78) 17% in, proj. out (#9-out), New Albany (3-1) 22%
( 4%) LLLLLL: 10.29 ( 6.40-13.92) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), Louisville (3-1) 29%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 141.1, #93, D2 #27), 83% (bubble if 4-6), 52% home (maybe if 6-4), 14% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 139.5, #94, D2 #26), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 42% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 137.5, #104, D2 #34), 47% (bubble if 5-5), 21% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 138.6, #101, D2 #31), 39% (bubble if 6-4), 17% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 146.4, #71, D2 #21), 62% (bubble if 5-5), 39% home (maybe if 7-3), 19% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 149.6