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Rankings
#26 of 104 in Division 2
#7 of 27 in Region 5
Strength of schedule #7 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #53 in D2 (-198 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 28-21 H #27 Indian Valley (3-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 5 (41%), perf. rating 152
08/29 L 16-15 A #103 Riverside (Painesville) (3-1) D2 R5, pick: W by 6 (62%), perf. rating 141
09/05 W 42-7 A #360 Tallmadge (1-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 19 (86%), perf. rating 156
09/12 L 27-21 H #63 Hoover (4-0) D2 R7, pick: W by 10 (72%), perf. rating 138
09/19 A #92 Jackson (Massillon) (2-2) D1 R1, pick: W by 1 (52%)
09/26 A #31 Canton McKinley (3-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/03 H #274 GlenOak (1-3) D1 R1, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/10 H #79 Louisville (4-0) D2 R7, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/17 A #82 Perry (Massillon) (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 2 (44%)
10/24 H #24 Lake (Uniontown) (4-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 20 (9%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
11.39 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#12 seed in R5 playoffs
Playoff chances now
45% (bubble if 4-6), 11% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.86 ( 3.52-28.49) 66% in, 18% home, 2% bye, proj. #11 (#2-out), Twinsburg (4-0) 16%
Lose: 7.66 ( 1.11-24.61) 22% in, 2% home, proj. out (#5-out), Twinsburg (4-0) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 25.36 (21.98-28.49) 100% in, 99% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 30%
( 9%) 6W: 20.06 (16.48-25.37) 100% in, 70% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Twinsburg (4-0) 20%
(19%) 5W: 15.32 (12.65-21.03) 98% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Twinsburg (4-0) 20%
(25%) 4W: 11.39 ( 8.56-16.34) 55% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 22%
(25%) 3W: 7.76 ( 4.78-13.06) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(18%) 2W: 4.08 ( 2.31- 8.12) out, proj. out
( 2%) 1W: 2.32 ( 1.11- 3.98) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 25.36 (21.98-28.49) 100% in, 99% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 30%
(11%) WLWWWL: 15.02 (12.65-18.00) 99% in, 7% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Twinsburg (4-0) 20%
( 7%) LLWWWL: 11.44 ( 9.62-14.98) 60% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 22%
( 8%) WLWWLL: 11.44 ( 8.56-14.37) 53% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 23%
( 8%) LLWWLL: 8.42 ( 6.65-10.84) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out), Walsh Jesuit (4-0) 23%
( 8%) WLWLLL: 7.10 ( 4.78- 9.58) out
(17%) LLWLLL: 4.08 ( 2.31- 7.01) out
( 2%) LLLLLL: 2.32 ( 1.11- 3.98) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 144.4, #83, D2 #26), 45% (bubble if 4-6), 11% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 147.7, #73, D2 #21), 76% (bubble if 4-6), 47% home (maybe if 5-5), 15% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 142.7, #86, D2 #24), 58% (bubble if 4-6), 30% home (maybe if 5-5), 9% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 140.3, #98, D2 #25), 60% (bubble if 4-6), 40% home (maybe if 5-5), 16% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 142.0, #95, D2 #21), 68% (bubble if 4-6), 54% home (maybe if 5-5), 33% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Last season 138.8