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Rankings
#57 of 100 in Division 2
#15 of 25 in Region 5
Strength of schedule #70 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #56 in D2 (-260 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 14-6 H #183 Euclid (2-2) D1 R1, pick: L by 8 (36%), perf. rating 111
08/28 W 21-14 H #173 North Ridgeville (0-4) D2 R6, pick: L by 33 (5%), perf. rating 135
09/04 L 45-21 A #126 South (Willoughby) (4-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 11 (27%), perf. rating 99
09/11 W 27-20 A #358 Bedford (1-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 9 (70%), perf. rating 113
09/18 H #536 Richmond Heights (3-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 33 (98%)
09/25 A #89 Garfield Heights (3-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 26 (5%)
10/02 H #468 Warrensville Heights (2-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/09 A #549 Shaw (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/16 H #425 Lutheran East (1-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/23 A #355 Mogadore (3-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 10 (74%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
16.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R5 playoffs
Playoff chances now
90% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.75 ( 4.70-24.75) 91% in, 8% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Glenville (2-2) 20%
Lose: 11.28 ( 4.00-20.05) 54% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Villa Angela-St Joseph (2-2) 22%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 8W: 20.55 (16.70-24.75) 100% in, 65% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Villa Angela-St Joseph (2-2) 17%
(60%) 7W: 16.40 (12.75-21.10) 99% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Glenville (2-2) 20%
(28%) 6W: 13.15 (10.00-18.20) 83% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Glenville (2-2) 22%
( 7%) 5W: 10.50 ( 7.60-15.75) 47% in, proj. out (#9-out), Glenville (2-2) 20%
( 1%) 4W: 8.22 ( 6.05-11.65) 18% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WWWWWW: 20.55 (16.70-24.75) 100% in, 65% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Villa Angela-St Joseph (2-2) 17%
(59%) WLWWWW: 16.40 (12.75-21.10) 99% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Glenville (2-2) 20%
( 5%) WLWWLW: 13.80 (10.65-17.85) 91% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Glenville (2-2) 23%
( 2%) WLLWWW: 13.80 (10.65-18.05) 89% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Villa Angela-St Joseph (2-2) 26%
(19%) WLWWWL: 12.85 (10.00-17.20) 80% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Glenville (2-2) 22%
( 4%) WLWWLL: 10.35 ( 8.20-14.45) 45% in, proj. out (#9-out), Glenville (2-2) 21%
( 2%) WLLWWL: 10.15 ( 7.60-13.35) 40% in, proj. out (#10-out), Glenville (2-2) 21%
( 1%) LLWWWL: 9.95 ( 8.00-13.00) 34% in, proj. out (#10-out), Glenville (2-2) 23%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 113.7, #272, D2 #57), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 3 (1-2, 112.9, #274, D2 #56), 77% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 119.7, #223, D2 #53), 81% (bubble if 5-5), 27% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 104.6, #328, D2 #65), 39% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 105.9, #306, D2 #63), 48% (bubble if 5-5), 21% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 110.8