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Rankings
#38 of 102 in Division 3
#13 of 26 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #62 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #57 in D3 (-126 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 48-28 H #367 Lorain (2-6) D1 R1, pick: W by 23 (85%), perf. rating 128
08/28 L 36-24 H #290 Madison (2-6) D3 R9, pick: W by 20 (84%), perf. rating 91
09/04 W 52-18 H #486 Beechcroft (4-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 32 (96%), perf. rating 131
09/11 L 38-20 A #23 Austintown-Fitch (6-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 35 (2%), perf. rating 141
09/18 W 50-20 H #536 Firestone (1-7) D2 R5, pick: W by 40 (99%), perf. rating 117
09/25 W 48-7 A #477 Warrensville Heights (2-6) D4 R13, pick: W by 29 (97%), perf. rating 147
10/02 L 28-6 A #156 Youngstown (2-5) D2 R5, pick: L by 3 (42%), perf. rating 98
10/08 W 40-0 A #393 Bedford (2-6) D3 R9, pick: W by 17 (87%), perf. rating 157
10/16 A #107 Garfield Heights (6-2) D3 R9, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/23 H #207 Gilmour Academy (5-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 2 (55%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
15.24 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
40% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 19.15 (13.91-21.04) 88% in, 58% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Gilmour Academy (5-3) 17%
Lose: 14.68 (10.04-17.12) 33% in, proj. out (#9-out), Salem (7-1) 29%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 7W: 19.72 (17.52-21.04) 100% in, 82% home, proj. #7 (#5-#11), Gilmour Academy (5-3) 19%
(52%) 6W: 15.24 (13.66-17.12) 60% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Salem (7-1) 28%
(39%) 5W: 11.22 (10.04-13.11) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WW: 19.72 (17.52-21.04) 100% in, 82% home, proj. #7 (#5-#11), Gilmour Academy (5-3) 19%
( 4%) WL: 15.70 (13.91-16.92) 58% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Glenville (6-2) 27%
(48%) LW: 15.24 (13.66-17.12) 60% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Salem (7-1) 29%
(39%) LL: 11.22 (10.04-13.11) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 116.7, #244, D3 #44), 22% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 6 (4-2, 122.2, #201, D3 #32), 42% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 5 (3-2, 118.7, #227, D3 #39), 31% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 4 (2-2, 122.8, #194, D3 #32), 56% (bubble if 6-4), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 120.5, #220, D3 #39), 56% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 123.0, #198, D3 #35), 52% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 132.7, #136, D3 #18), 81% (bubble if 6-4), 63% home (maybe if 7-3), 33% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 131.3, #142, D3 #22), 70% (bubble if 7-3), 47% home (maybe if 8-2), 18% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Last season 131.7