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Rankings
#42 of 107 in Division 3
#14 of 27 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #69 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #42 in D3 (-62 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 42-16 A #388 Lorain (1-3) D1 R1, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 138
08/29 W 28-22 A #246 Dover (1-3) D3 R11, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 127
09/05 W 42-6 A #572 Beechcroft (0-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 43 (99%), perf. rating 123
09/12 L 36-20 H #151 Boardman (2-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 15 (81%), perf. rating 106
09/19 A #279 South (Willoughby) (2-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 10 (73%)
09/26 H #545 Warrensville Heights (1-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/02 A #512 Shaw (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/09 H #288 Bedford (2-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 15 (84%)
10/17 H #272 Garfield Heights (3-1) D2 R5, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/24 A #169 Gilmour Academy (1-3) D3 R9, pick: L by 7 (32%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
18.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
66% (bubble if 7-3), 33% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.45 ( 8.00-25.75) 78% in, 41% home, 3% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Gilmour Academy (1-3) 13%
Lose: 14.40 ( 5.75-22.50) 33% in, 9% home, proj. out (#5-out), Villa Angela-St Joseph (2-1) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
(25%) 9W: 21.65 (17.65-25.75) 100% in, 95% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Gilmour Academy (1-3) 12%
(35%) 8W: 18.15 (14.95-23.40) 94% in, 24% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Gilmour Academy (1-3) 12%
(24%) 7W: 15.05 (11.00-19.80) 35% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Alliance (3-1) 15%
(12%) 6W: 11.90 ( 8.65-16.35) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 4%) 5W: 8.90 ( 7.15-12.95) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(25%) WWWWWW: 21.65 (17.65-25.75) 100% in, 95% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Gilmour Academy (1-3) 12%
( 4%) LWWWWW: 19.30 (16.40-22.50) 99% in, 60% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Benedictine (4-0) 10%
(26%) WWWWWL: 18.10 (14.95-23.40) 93% in, 18% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Gilmour Academy (1-3) 15%
( 8%) LWWWWL: 15.80 (12.95-19.15) 50% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Gilmour Academy (1-3) 16%
( 5%) WWWLWL: 14.85 (11.80-18.45) 18% in, proj. out (#9-out), Gilmour Academy (1-3) 21%
( 8%) WWWWLL: 13.95 (11.00-16.90) 27% in, proj. out (#9-out), Alliance (3-1) 19%
( 5%) LWWWLL: 11.55 ( 9.20-14.70) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Alliance (3-1) 67%
( 3%) LWWLLL: 8.75 ( 7.15-11.40) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 123.9, #194, D3 #42), 66% (bubble if 7-3), 33% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye, proj. #11 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 136.7, #122, D3 #21), 94% (bubble if 7-3), 82% home (maybe if 8-2), 46% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 146.1, #79, D3 #13), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 7-3), 70% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 140.7, #95, D3 #18), 88% (bubble if 6-4), 73% home (maybe if 7-3), 46% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 127.0, #167, D3 #36), 66% (bubble if 6-4), 44% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Last season 132.3