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Rankings
#40 of 106 in Division 5
#11 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #25 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #35 in D5 (+35 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 31-16 A #458 Marietta (0-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 109
08/29 W 28-13 H #411 Warren (1-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 6 (62%), perf. rating 114
09/05 L 33-14 H #148 New Lexington (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 23 (10%), perf. rating 102
09/12 L 41-7 A #84 Tri-Valley (3-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 36 (2%), perf. rating 96
09/19 A #410 Crooksville (4-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 7 (67%)
09/26 H #404 West Muskingum (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/03 H #301 John Glenn (3-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/10 A #298 Sheridan (2-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/17 H #648 River View (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/24 A #291 Philo (3-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 9 (28%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
9.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
43% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.25 ( 4.80-21.30) 59% in, 23% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 15%
Lose: 6.60 ( 2.25-17.85) 13% in, 2% home, proj. out (#5-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 8W: 18.50 (15.95-21.30) 100% in, 98% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Valley (4-0) 18%
(18%) 7W: 15.20 (12.15-19.25) 99% in, 47% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 20%
(24%) 6W: 12.10 ( 9.05-17.20) 68% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 20%
(24%) 5W: 9.35 ( 6.20-13.65) 9% in, proj. out (#9-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 25%
(18%) 4W: 6.45 ( 4.10-11.60) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 9%) 3W: 3.70 ( 2.70- 7.10) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WWWWWW: 18.50 (15.95-21.30) 100% in, 98% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Valley (4-0) 18%
( 6%) WWWLWW: 15.60 (12.75-18.65) 99% in, 57% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Harvest Prep (2-2) 19%
( 6%) WWWWWL: 15.00 (12.15-17.95) 99% in, 42% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 20%
( 8%) WWWLWL: 12.35 ( 9.85-15.50) 72% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 18%
(11%) WWLLWL: 9.45 ( 7.00-12.65) 10% in, proj. out (#9-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 25%
( 6%) WLLLWL: 6.70 ( 4.80- 9.30) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Nelsonville-York (4-0) 100%
( 7%) LWLLWL: 6.30 ( 4.10- 9.20) out
( 9%) LLLLWL: 3.70 ( 2.70- 6.60) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 103.1, #349, D5 #40), 43% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 104.0, #350, D5 #40), 49% (bubble if 6-4), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 102.6, #339, D5 #39), 43% (bubble if 6-4), 19% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 97.5, #377, D5 #46), 25% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 90.3, #447, D5 #59), 17% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 85.5