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Rankings
#48 of 106 in Division 5
#13 of 28 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #48 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #34 in D5 (+38 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 34-14 A #556 Harrison Central (0-4) D5 R17, pick: L by 5 (41%), perf. rating 102
08/29 L 27-12 H #266 Smithville (4-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 89
09/05 W 7-6 H #311 Fairless (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 28 (6%), perf. rating 107
09/12 W 12-0 H #458 Marietta (0-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 7 (66%), perf. rating 101
09/19 A #442 Newcomerstown (2-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 7 (67%)
09/26 A #179 Garaway (3-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 28 (4%)
10/03 H #561 Tuscarawas Valley (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/10 A #607 Sandy Valley (0-4) D5 R17, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/17 H #241 Ridgewood (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/23 A #27 Indian Valley (3-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 46 (1%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
10.05 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#11 seed in R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
54% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.30 ( 6.08-21.19) 72% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Garfield (3-1) 13%
Lose: 7.26 ( 3.95-17.43) 18% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Garfield (3-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 16.92 (14.67-20.28) 100% in, 92% home, 17% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 17%
(13%) 7W: 13.51 ( 9.88-17.44) 99% in, 38% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Liberty (3-1) 14%
(51%) 6W: 10.05 ( 6.98-16.63) 68% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Garfield (3-1) 14%
(29%) 5W: 7.55 ( 4.65-13.32) 16% in, proj. out (#9-out), Garfield (3-1) 14%
( 5%) 4W: 6.29 ( 4.14-10.32) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWL: 16.87 (14.67-19.62) 100% in, 93% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 15%
(10%) WLWWWL: 13.61 ( 9.88-17.28) 99% in, 40% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Liberty (3-1) 14%
( 2%) WWWWLL: 12.84 (10.39-17.44) 97% in, 22% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Liberty (3-1) 13%
( 2%) LLWWWL: 11.17 ( 8.72-14.28) 88% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Garfield (3-1) 13%
(48%) WLWWLL: 9.94 ( 6.98-14.18) 66% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Garfield (3-1) 14%
( 2%) WLLWLL: 8.63 ( 6.08-11.99) 35% in, proj. out (#9-out), Garfield (3-1) 14%
(25%) LLWWLL: 7.25 ( 4.65-11.02) 12% in, proj. out (#10-out), Garfield (3-1) 14%
( 3%) LLLWLL: 5.88 ( 4.14- 9.30) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Edison (Richmond) (3-1) 29%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 95.9, #395, D5 #48), 54% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 91.7, #419, D5 #57), 49% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 84.0, #473, D5 #67), 13% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 90.2, #437, D5 #61), 32% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 78.3, #525, D5 #79), 15% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 73.7