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Rankings
#19 of 102 in Division 4
#4 of 26 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #70 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #18 in D4 (+146 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 43-0 H #617 Harrison Central (1-7) D5 R17, pick: W by 18 (80%), perf. rating 115
08/28 W 54-0 A #647 River View (0-8) D5 R19, pick: W by 47 (99%), perf. rating 107
09/04 W 27-10 A #267 Fairless (4-4) D5 R17, pick: L by 8 (33%), perf. rating 141
09/11 W 49-6 H #365 Carrollton (2-6) D4 R15, pick: W by 14 (80%), perf. rating 160
09/18 W 42-0 A #534 Marietta (0-8) D3 R11, pick: W by 32 (98%), perf. rating 139
09/25 W 48-0 H #545 Sandy Valley (1-7) D5 R17, pick: W by 39 (99%), perf. rating 132
10/02 W 14-8 A #235 Ridgewood (5-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 4 (60%), perf. rating 129
10/09 W 35-0 A #472 Tuscarawas Valley (3-5) D5 R17, pick: W by 32 (98%), perf. rating 139
10/16 H #131 Garaway (6-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/23 H #35 Indian Valley (7-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 25 (5%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
13.60 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#12 seed in R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
75% (bubble if 8-2), 41% home (likely needs 9-1), 3% bye (likely needs 10-0)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.23 (15.26-23.34) 100% in, 92% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Heath (5-3) 15%
Lose: 13.65 (11.68-19.70) 56% in, 5% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#4-out), West Muskingum (6-2) 29%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 10W: 21.77 (20.36-23.34) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #4 (#3-#6), bye 91%
(42%) 9W: 17.23 (15.26-19.70) 100% in, 92% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#11), Marion-Franklin (4-4) 16%
(55%) 8W: 13.60 (11.68-16.12) 54% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), West Muskingum (6-2) 31%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WW: 21.77 (20.36-23.34) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #4 (#3-#6), bye 91%
( 2%) LW: 18.14 (16.22-19.70) 100% home, 2% bye, proj. #5 (#4-#7), Beaver Local (4-4) 22%
(39%) WL: 17.23 (15.26-19.35) 100% in, 91% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#11), Heath (5-3) 16%
(55%) LL: 13.60 (11.68-16.12) 54% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), West Muskingum (6-2) 31%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (7-0, 126.0, #176, D4 #22), 74% (bubble if 8-2), 38% home (likely needs 9-1), 2% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #12 at 8-2
Week 6 (6-0, 125.2, #183, D4 #23), 61% (bubble if 8-2), 29% home (likely needs 9-1), 2% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #12 at 8-2
Week 5 (5-0, 124.4, #190, D4 #26), 59% (bubble if 8-2), 21% home (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 8-2
Week 4 (4-0, 122.2, #201, D4 #26), 58% (bubble if 8-2), 19% home (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 110.0, #292, D4 #40), 37% (bubble if 8-2), 10% home (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 103.4, #337, D4 #48), 21% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 104.9, #325, D4 #47), 36% (bubble if 7-3), 13% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye, proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 92.8, #420, D4 #64), 26% (bubble if 7-3), 9% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 99.9