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Rankings
#53 of 105 in Division 4
#13 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #65 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #21 in D4 (+80 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 16-15 H #411 Warren (1-3) D3 R11, pick: L by 16 (23%), perf. rating 93
08/29 W 35-27 H #325 Washington (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 6 (62%), perf. rating 115
09/05 W 42-35 A #434 Westfall (3-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 102
09/12 W 35-8 A #470 Logan Elm (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 5 (62%), perf. rating 125
09/19 H #259 Amanda-Clearcreek (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 9 (28%)
09/26 H #458 Marietta (0-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 21 (91%)
10/03 A #197 Hamilton Township (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 21 (9%)
10/10 A #324 Fairfield Union (1-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/17 H #490 Liberty Union (3-1) D6 R23, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/24 A #187 Bloom-Carroll (2-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 22 (7%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
15.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#9 seed in R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
86% (bubble if 5-5), 37% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.45 ( 9.80-27.95) 99% in, 72% home, 16% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 16%
Lose: 13.50 ( 7.75-25.05) 81% in, 23% home, 2% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), East (Columbus) (3-1) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 10W: 25.30 (22.50-27.95) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 6%) 9W: 21.55 (17.80-26.05) 100% home, 52% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 52%
(16%) 8W: 18.10 (14.85-23.70) 100% in, 90% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Johnstown (2-2) 15%
(29%) 7W: 15.35 (11.95-20.20) 99% in, 44% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Johnstown (2-2) 13%
(33%) 6W: 12.95 ( 9.80-18.30) 83% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), West Holmes (3-1) 13%
(11%) 5W: 11.30 ( 8.25-16.50) 43% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), West Holmes (3-1) 16%
( 2%) 4W: 9.50 ( 7.75-11.75) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 25.30 (22.50-27.95) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 8%) WWLWWL: 17.50 (14.85-21.05) 100% in, 85% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Johnstown (2-2) 16%
( 8%) WWLLWL: 15.45 (12.25-18.45) 99% in, 39% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Johnstown (2-2) 12%
(15%) LWLWWL: 15.00 (11.95-18.35) 99% in, 37% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Johnstown (2-2) 14%
(28%) LWLLWL: 12.90 (10.00-16.85) 82% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 14%
( 6%) LLLLWL: 11.50 ( 8.85-14.25) 54% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 17%
( 5%) LWLLLL: 10.70 ( 8.25-13.75) 27% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), West Holmes (3-1) 22%
( 2%) LLLLLL: 9.50 ( 7.75-11.75) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Unioto (4-0) 27%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 103.8, #342, D4 #53), 86% (bubble if 5-5), 37% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 3 (3-0, 90.4, #424, D4 #70), 36% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 87.4, #452, D4 #75), 37% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 87.7, #454, D4 #79), 43% (bubble if 6-4), 20% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 81.9, #505, D4 #84), 20% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 85.0