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Rankings
#70 of 104 in Division 2
#19 of 27 in Region 7
Strength of schedule #90 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #77 in D2 (-428 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 27-25 A #197 Hamilton Township (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 28 (10%), perf. rating 123
08/29 W 14-6 A #351 East (Columbus) (3-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 24 (11%), perf. rating 117
09/05 W 36-7 H #398 Pleasant (1-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 10 (28%), perf. rating 137
09/12 L 26-7 H #305 Northland (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 20 (88%), perf. rating 78
09/19 A #458 Marietta (0-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 19 (88%)
09/26 H #236 Bishop Ready (1-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/03 H #467 Bexley (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/10 A #390 Franklin Heights (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/17 H #173 Buckeye Valley (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/24 A #273 Columbus Academy (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 9 (28%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
12.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R7 playoffs
Playoff chances now
40% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.50 ( 5.35-26.60) 43% in, 16% home, 2% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Northland (2-2) 11%
Lose: 10.40 ( 4.75-23.70) 15% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Northland (2-2) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 8W: 23.95 (21.40-26.60) 100% in, 99% home, 46% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 46%
(12%) 7W: 19.52 (16.65-23.70) 99% in, 68% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Walnut Ridge (1-3) 12%
(23%) 6W: 15.80 (11.45-21.80) 79% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Northland (2-2) 13%
(30%) 5W: 12.60 ( 9.55-17.30) 17% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Ashland (4-0) 14%
(22%) 4W: 9.85 ( 6.90-15.10) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 7%) 3W: 8.10 ( 5.35-12.00) out, proj. out
( 1%) 2W: 6.45 ( 4.75- 8.10) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WWWWWW: 23.95 (21.40-26.60) 100% in, 99% home, 46% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 46%
( 7%) WWWWLW: 18.90 (16.65-21.65) 99% in, 57% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Northland (2-2) 11%
( 9%) WLWWLW: 15.80 (13.00-18.85) 80% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Northland (2-2) 14%
( 8%) WWWWLL: 15.30 (11.45-18.90) 72% in, 5% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Northland (2-2) 14%
( 4%) WLWLLW: 12.70 ( 9.55-15.20) 12% in, proj. out (#9-out), Westerville South (3-1) 15%
(19%) WLWWLL: 12.55 (10.30-15.40) 13% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Ashland (4-0) 17%
(16%) WLWLLL: 9.65 ( 6.90-12.60) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Canal Winchester (4-0) 100%
( 1%) LLLLLL: 6.45 ( 4.75- 8.10) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 105.3, #328, D2 #70), 40% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 114.6, #259, D2 #60), 93% (bubble if 4-6), 73% home (maybe if 6-4), 26% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 96.7, #385, D2 #78), 48% (bubble if 4-6), 24% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 81.9, #499, D2 #89), 16% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 72.0, #549, D2 #95), 13% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 70.7