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Rankings
#10 of 105 in Division 4
#3 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #24 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #44 in D4 (-68 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 17-14 A #152 Clear Fork (3-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 33 (93%), perf. rating 129
08/29 W 55-6 H #507 Scott (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 139
09/05 L 30-24 A #112 St Francis (Toledo) (3-1) D2 R6, pick: W by 13 (77%), perf. rating 132
09/12 L 20-13 A #58 Harvest Prep (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 14 (20%), perf. rating 141
09/19 H #256 Bellevue (3-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 25 (94%)
09/26 H #362 Clyde (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 33 (98%)
10/03 A #386 Sandusky (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/10 H #425 Norwalk (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/17 H #281 Huron (2-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/24 A #156 Tiffin Columbian (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 7 (68%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
17.07 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#5 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
98% (bubble if 4-6), 70% home (maybe if 6-4), 12% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.25 ( 5.47-21.00) 99% in, 74% home, 13% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), bye 13%
Lose: 11.27 ( 3.90-16.06) 72% in, 15% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Bay (3-1) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
(59%) 7W: 17.07 (13.14-21.00) 100% in, 95% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), bye 20%
(33%) 6W: 13.66 ( 9.58-17.84) 99% in, 41% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 15%
( 7%) 5W: 11.07 ( 7.50-14.64) 83% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 16%
( 1%) 4W: 8.60 ( 5.47-11.44) 35% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(59%) WWWWWW: 17.07 (13.14-21.00) 100% in, 95% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), bye 20%
( 2%) WWWWLW: 14.83 (11.92-17.18) 100% in, 70% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#12), Cloverleaf (3-1) 16%
( 2%) LWWWWW: 13.71 (11.16-16.06) 98% in, 36% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 13%
(26%) WWWWWL: 13.41 ( 9.58-17.23) 99% in, 37% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 15%
( 2%) WWWWLL: 11.37 ( 8.52-14.54) 94% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 18%
( 2%) LWWWWL: 10.15 ( 7.50-13.21) 63% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Bay (3-1) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 140.2, #102, D4 #10), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 70% home (maybe if 6-4), 12% bye, proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 3 (1-2, 136.7, #121, D4 #14), 87% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 141.3, #92, D4 #9), 91% (bubble if 5-5), 72% home (maybe if 6-4), 30% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 144.3, #80, D4 #7), 92% (bubble if 4-6), 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 47% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 160.3, #29, D4 #3), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 93% home (maybe if 6-4), 79% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 160.4