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Rankings
#85 of 100 in Division 2
#21 of 25 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #83 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #70 in D2 (-547 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 46-21 H #155 St Francis (Toledo) (1-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 44 (2%), perf. rating 89
08/28 W 28-21 H #485 Rossford (1-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 4 (57%), perf. rating 90
09/04 L 29-12 H #311 Maumee (2-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 25 (8%), perf. rating 80
09/11 A #592 Rogers (0-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 18 (86%)
09/18 H #436 Start (1-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 6 (35%)
09/24 H #575 Bowsher (0-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 17 (86%)
10/01 H #645 Woodward (Toledo) (0-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/09 A #566 Scott (0-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 11 (77%)
10/16 A #204 Lima Senior (2-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/23 A #181 Leipsic (3-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 35 (1%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
8.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
34% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.20 ( 2.05-21.70) 39% in, 7% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Lakewood (3-0) 16%
Lose: 4.50 ( 1.10-15.60) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Amherst Steele (3-0) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 15.75 (13.05-20.00) 100% in, 88% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Rhodes (1-2) 12%
(25%) 6W: 11.60 ( 9.35-15.60) 95% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Lakewood (3-0) 16%
(36%) 5W: 8.20 ( 6.80-13.55) 22% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Lakewood (3-0) 18%
(22%) 4W: 5.95 ( 4.45-11.75) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(10%) 3W: 4.15 ( 2.75- 9.00) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 3%) 2W: 2.65 ( 1.65- 6.75) out, proj. out
( 1%) 1W: 1.60 ( 1.10- 3.55) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWWL: 16.25 (15.15-20.00) 100% in, 95% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), St Francis (Toledo) (1-2) 12%
(23%) WWWWWLL: 11.60 (10.25-14.65) 95% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Lakewood (3-0) 16%
( 4%) WWWWLLL: 9.30 ( 7.80-12.70) 59% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Clay (3-0) 19%
(28%) WLWWWLL: 8.10 ( 6.80-11.00) 12% in, proj. out (#9-out), Lakewood (3-0) 20%
(11%) WLWWLLL: 5.90 ( 4.90- 9.05) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Toledo Central Catholic (2-1) 20%
( 5%) WLLWWLL: 5.85 ( 4.50- 9.50) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Findlay (3-0) 40%
( 5%) WLLWLLL: 4.20 ( 2.85- 6.70) out
( 1%) LLLLLLL: 1.60 ( 1.10- 3.55) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 81.0, #491, D2 #85), 34% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 78.1, #508, D2 #86), 25% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 75.3, #524, D2 #87), 14% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 68.3, #567, D2 #92), 14% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 72.8