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Rankings
#58 of 105 in Division 4
#17 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #16 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #78 in D4 (-438 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 33-23 H #256 Bellevue (3-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 24 (86%), perf. rating 98
08/29 L 30-13 A #432 Start (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 16 (79%), perf. rating 67
09/05 L 35-21 H #74 Ashland (4-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 33 (3%), perf. rating 123
09/12 L 33-3 A #112 St Francis (Toledo) (3-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 29 (4%), perf. rating 96
09/19 A #331 Port Clinton (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 6 (35%)
09/26 A #102 Perkins (1-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 33 (2%)
10/03 H #170 Edison (Milan) (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/10 H #386 Sandusky (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/17 A #156 Tiffin Columbian (1-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/24 H #425 Norwalk (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 11 (77%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
3.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.40 ( 1.80-17.35) 7% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Perkins (1-3) 16%
Lose: 1.75 ( 0.00-12.55) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 4W: 9.10 ( 7.45-11.75) 26% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Perkins (1-3) 16%
(21%) 3W: 5.85 ( 4.60- 9.75) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(33%) 2W: 3.40 ( 2.80- 6.95) out, proj. out
(26%) 1W: 1.25 ( 1.10- 4.25) out, proj. out
(12%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WLWWLW: 9.35 ( 7.85-11.40) 30% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Perkins (1-3) 19%
(16%) WLLWLW: 5.70 ( 5.20- 8.75) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Orrville (3-1) 29%
( 3%) WLLWLL: 4.05 ( 3.50- 6.25) out
( 6%) WLLLLW: 3.55 ( 2.95- 6.00) out
(22%) LLLWLW: 3.00 ( 2.95- 5.05) out
( 8%) LLLWLL: 1.25 ( 1.25- 3.80) out
(16%) LLLLLW: 1.15 ( 1.15- 2.80) out
(12%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 101.0, #362, D4 #58), 3% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 103.2, #356, D4 #55), 4% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 103.3, #335, D4 #50), 6% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 114.5, #255, D4 #35), 45% (bubble if 4-6), 24% home (maybe if 5-5), 8% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 128.1, #165, D4 #14), 75% (bubble if 4-6), 56% home (maybe if 5-5), 30% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Last season 131.5