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Rankings
#42 of 101 in Division 4
#11 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #19 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #39 in D4 (-15 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 42-0 A #96 Bellevue (2-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 79
08/28 W 33-6 H #417 Start (1-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 9 (33%), perf. rating 129
09/04 A #110 Ashland (2-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 27 (7%)
09/11 H Temperance Bedford MI (2-0) D2
09/18 H #215 Port Clinton (2-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 10 (27%)
09/25 H #52 Perkins (2-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 34 (2%)
10/02 A #342 Edison (Milan) (0-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/09 A #429 Sandusky (0-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/16 H #188 Tiffin Columbian (2-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 14 (18%)
10/23 A #497 Norwalk (0-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 25 (95%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
2.89 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#12 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
62% (bubble if 4-6), 23% home (maybe if 5-5), 2% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.79 ( 2.00- 7.48) 96% in, 76% home, 18% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 18%
Lose: 2.97 ( 0.71- 6.57) 60% in, 19% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#1-out), Benjamin Logan (1-1) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 7W: 5.41 ( 4.95- 5.85) 100% in, 99% home, 20% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 20%
(12%) 6W: 4.51 ( 4.12- 5.05) 100% in, 78% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Otsego (2-0) 15%
(24%) 5W: 3.70 ( 3.22- 4.41) 98% in, 28% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Benjamin Logan (1-1) 12%
(27%) 4W: 2.89 ( 2.54- 3.61) 70% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Bellevue (2-0) 14%
(21%) 3W: 2.18 ( 1.87- 2.78) 11% in, proj. out (#9-out), Bellevue (2-0) 24%
( 9%) 2W: 1.53 ( 1.21- 2.11) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWLWWWW: 5.37 ( 4.95- 5.61) 100% in, 99% home, 16% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), bye 16%
( 5%) LLWLWWWW: 4.39 ( 4.12- 4.65) 100% in, 67% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#12), Benjamin Logan (1-1) 12%
( 7%) LWLLWWLW: 3.77 ( 3.48- 4.08) 99% in, 33% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Benjamin Logan (1-1) 13%
( 5%) LLLLWWWW: 3.63 ( 3.40- 3.94) 98% in, 22% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Benjamin Logan (1-1) 14%
( 6%) LLWLWWLW: 3.54 ( 3.22- 3.81) 97% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Buckeye (0-2) 13%
(11%) LLLLWWLW: 2.79 ( 2.54- 3.04) 56% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Bellevue (2-0) 17%
(11%) LLLLLWLW: 2.15 ( 1.87- 2.35) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Bellevue (2-0) 33%
( 5%) LLLLLLLW: 1.50 ( 1.21- 1.70) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 108.3, #302, D4 #42), 70% (bubble if 3-7), 31% home (maybe if 5-5), 4% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 94.9, #404, D4 #61), 19% (bubble if 4-6), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 115.9, #232, D4 #26), 71% (bubble if 4-6), 48% home (maybe if 5-5), 19% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 5-5
Last season 111.4