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Rankings
#72 of 104 in Division 3
#19 of 26 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #5 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #61 in D3 (-170 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 49-7 H #46 Nordonia (3-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 31 (8%), perf. rating 91
08/28 L 41-0 H #157 Perry (Massillon) (2-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 32 (5%), perf. rating 65
09/04 L 54-13 A #22 Hudson (3-0) D1 R1, pick: L by 47 (1%), perf. rating 109
09/11 H #570 Firestone (0-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 27 (95%)
09/18 H #324 Elyria Catholic (1-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 9 (28%)
09/25 A #43 Villa Angela-St Joseph (1-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 43 (1%)
10/02 A #1 Walsh Jesuit (3-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/08 A #251 Boardman (0-3) D2 R5, pick: L by 22 (7%)
10/16 H #52 Cardinal Mooney (2-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 40 (1%)
10/23 H #111 Benedictine (3-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 31 (2%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
1.21 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 1.82 ( 0.60-15.15) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Lose: 0.00 ( 0.00- 8.64) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 4W: 6.89 ( 4.54-11.23) 7% in, proj. out (#9-out)
( 8%) 3W: 4.15 ( 2.31-10.88) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(29%) 2W: 2.78 ( 1.20- 7.78) out, proj. out
(57%) 1W: 1.21 ( 0.60- 5.55) out, proj. out
( 4%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWLLWLW: 6.38 ( 4.54- 9.19) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Cloverleaf (2-1) 50%
( 1%) WWLLLLW: 5.63 ( 4.51- 8.84) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Copley (3-0) 100%
( 2%) WLLLLLW: 4.06 ( 2.83- 6.25) out
( 5%) WWLLWLL: 3.59 ( 2.31- 6.90) out
(21%) WWLLLLL: 2.78 ( 1.71- 5.74) out
( 5%) WLLLWLL: 2.42 ( 1.20- 4.31) out
(56%) WLLLLLL: 1.21 ( 0.60- 3.56) out
( 4%) LLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (0-3, 95.3, #397, D3 #72), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 95.7, #390, D3 #69), 2% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 98.5, #379, D3 #70), 5% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 103.7, #330, D3 #62), 12% (bubble if 4-6), 4% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 103.0