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Rankings
#44 of 102 in Division 3
#10 of 25 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #24 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #60 in D3 (-148 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 47-13 H #493 Lutheran West (1-5) D3 R10, pick: W by 28 (90%), perf. rating 129
08/28 L 31-13 H #67 Mayfield (6-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 11 (28%), perf. rating 117
09/04 L 28-14 H #225 Midview (3-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 8 (33%), perf. rating 96
09/11 L 20-17 A #236 Vermilion (5-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 16 (17%), perf. rating 115
09/18 W 42-14 A #397 St Vincent-St Mary (1-5) D3 R10, pick: W by 8 (69%), perf. rating 138
09/25 W 14-7 H #249 Padua Franciscan (3-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 1 (47%), perf. rating 124
10/02 A #153 Lake Catholic (3-3) D3 R9, pick: L by 14 (18%)
10/09 A #212 Holy Name (3-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/16 A #93 Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (5-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/23 H #151 Cuyahoga Val. Christian (3-3) D3 R9, pick: L by 10 (26%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
7.96 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
34% (bubble if 4-6), 11% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.34 ( 7.40-20.21) 79% in, 39% home, 5% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Buchtel (3-3) 15%
Lose: 7.35 ( 4.58-17.34) 25% in, 5% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 6W: 15.22 (14.11-17.44) 100% in, 97% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Midview (3-3) 18%
(18%) 5W: 11.29 (10.22-14.67) 99% in, 25% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Buchtel (3-3) 18%
(35%) 4W: 7.96 ( 7.35-12.30) 27% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 36%
(40%) 3W: 5.13 ( 4.58- 7.91) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWW: 15.72 (15.12-17.34) 100% in, 99% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Tiffin Columbian (4-2) 18%
( 3%) WWLW: 14.66 (14.11-15.83) 100% in, 95% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Midview (3-3) 20%
( 9%) LWLW: 11.29 (10.73-14.67) 99% in, 21% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Buchtel (3-3) 17%
( 4%) WWLL: 11.29 (10.73-13.56) 99% in, 24% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Buchtel (3-3) 19%
(10%) LLLW: 8.51 ( 7.40-10.84) 28% in, proj. out (#9-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 33%
( 5%) WLLL: 8.51 ( 7.40-10.79) 28% in, proj. out (#9-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 31%
(18%) LWLL: 7.91 ( 7.35-10.74) 21% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 41%
(40%) LLLL: 5.13 ( 4.58- 7.91) out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (3-3, 117.9, #234, D3 #44), 34% (bubble if 4-6), 11% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 4-6
Week 5 (2-3, 114.8, #257, D3 #46), 21% (bubble if 4-6), 7% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (1-3, 108.3, #309, D3 #60), 10% (likely needs 5-5), 2% home (likely needs 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 106.0, #324, D3 #65), 9% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (1-1, 109.4, #298, D3 #58), 29% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 114.8, #248, D3 #49), 49% (bubble if 5-5), 29% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 110.9, #276, D3 #53), 40% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 111.4