Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions

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Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

#296 Elyria Catholic Panthers (3-5) 110.3

Updated Sat 10-Oct-2026 10:44 PM
Week 8 in progress

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Rankings
#61 of 102 in Division 3
#13 of 25 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #24 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #66 in D3 (-242 WP+)

Schedule and results
08/21 W 47-13 H #510 Lutheran West (1-7) D3 R10, pick: W by 28 (90%), perf. rating 127
08/28 L 31-13 H #85 Mayfield (8-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 11 (28%), perf. rating 112
09/04 L 28-14 H #234 Midview (4-4) D3 R10, pick: L by 8 (33%), perf. rating 95
09/11 L 20-17 A #240 Vermilion (6-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 16 (17%), perf. rating 114
09/18 W 42-14 A #418 St Vincent-St Mary (1-7) D3 R10, pick: W by 8 (69%), perf. rating 135
09/25 W 14-7 H #218 Padua Franciscan (4-4) D3 R10, pick: L by 1 (47%), perf. rating 129
10/02 L 35-0 A #188 Lake Catholic (4-4) D3 R9, pick: L by 14 (18%), perf. rating 75
10/09 L 33-14 A #195 Holy Name (4-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 10 (26%), perf. rating 98
10/16 A #71 Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (7-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/23 H #194 Cuyahoga Val. Christian (4-4) D3 R9, pick: L by 12 (21%)

Regular season projections
3-7 record
5.69 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R10 playoffs

Playoff chances now
7% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely

Depending on the next game
Win: 10.63 ( 9.52-14.57) 82% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Wapakoneta (5-3) 29%
Lose: 5.69 ( 5.13-10.18) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Wapakoneta (5-3) 51%

Based on eventual number of wins
(23%) 4W: 9.07 ( 8.51-11.19) 27% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wapakoneta (5-3) 49%
(76%) 3W: 5.69 ( 5.13- 7.36) out, proj. out

Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WL: 10.63 ( 9.52-11.19) 72% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Wapakoneta (5-3) 37%
(22%) LW: 9.07 ( 8.51-10.18) 24% in, proj. out (#11-out), Wapakoneta (5-3) 51%
(76%) LL: 5.69 ( 5.13- 7.36) out

Most likely first round opponents
Wapakoneta (5-3) 46%
Holy Name (4-3) 16%
Copley (6-2) 11%
St Marys Memorial (5-3) 8%
Tiffin Columbian (6-2) 6%

Weekly summary info
Week 7 (3-4, 113.5, #264, D3 #49), 17% (bubble if 4-6), 3% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 6 (3-3, 117.9, #234, D3 #44), 34% (bubble if 4-6), 11% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 4-6
Week 5 (2-3, 114.8, #257, D3 #46), 21% (bubble if 4-6), 7% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (1-3, 108.3, #309, D3 #60), 10% (likely needs 5-5), 2% home (likely needs 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 106.0, #324, D3 #65), 9% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (1-1, 109.4, #298, D3 #58), 29% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 114.8, #248, D3 #49), 49% (bubble if 5-5), 29% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 110.9, #276, D3 #53), 40% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 111.4