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Rankings
#53 of 107 in Division 3
#16 of 28 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #10 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #73 in D3 (-402 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 55-42 A #110 Bishop Hartley (3-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 28 (10%), perf. rating 122
08/29 L 28-13 A #216 Mayfield (2-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 11 (29%), perf. rating 100
09/05 L 41-20 A #215 Midview (3-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 21 (12%), perf. rating 91
09/12 W 17-0 H #285 Vermilion (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 10 (28%), perf. rating 134
09/19 A #193 Padua Franciscan (1-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 13 (21%)
09/26 H #380 St Vincent-St Mary (0-4) D2 R5, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/03 H #73 Lake Catholic (3-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/10 H #195 Holy Name (3-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/17 H #120 Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (3-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 22 (7%)
10/24 A #70 Cuyahoga Val. Christian (3-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 30 (2%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
4.52 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
8% (likely needs 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.64 ( 3.04-23.04) 22% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Lexington (3-1) 12%
Lose: 4.72 ( 1.88-20.90) 4% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Copley (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 16.82 (15.09-20.90) 100% in, 77% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Toledo Central Catholic (1-3) 15%
( 5%) 5W: 13.01 (10.56-17.70) 83% in, 14% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Lexington (3-1) 12%
(13%) 4W: 9.65 ( 6.49-15.57) 18% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Lexington (3-1) 17%
(27%) 3W: 7.01 ( 3.64-11.55) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(42%) 2W: 4.52 ( 2.48- 9.16) out, proj. out
(12%) 1W: 3.56 ( 1.88- 4.89) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWLWWL: 12.80 (10.71-14.59) 78% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Toledo Central Catholic (1-3) 14%
( 3%) LWLWWL: 10.72 ( 7.92-13.83) 33% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Lexington (3-1) 18%
( 5%) WWLWLL: 9.09 ( 6.49-11.18) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lexington (3-1) 29%
( 4%) LWLLWL: 7.72 ( 4.56- 9.92) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Copley (3-1) 50%
(14%) LWLWLL: 7.36 ( 5.17- 9.51) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 100%
( 7%) WWLLLL: 5.71 ( 3.64- 7.93) out
(38%) LWLLLL: 4.16 ( 2.48- 6.15) out
(12%) LLLLLL: 3.56 ( 1.88- 4.89) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 113.3, #265, D3 #53), 8% (likely needs 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 107.4, #308, D3 #61), 5% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 110.3, #293, D3 #61), 13% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 114.3, #259, D3 #53), 29% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 110.2, #272, D3 #55), 21% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 111.7