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Rankings
#4 of 106 in Division 5
#2 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #3 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #6 in D5 (+410 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 31-12 A #8 Archbishop Hoban (3-1) D2 R5, pick: L by 28 (10%), perf. rating 153
08/29 L 31-18 A Versailles Woodford County KY (3-1) D2
09/05 W 47-12 H #365 Purcell Marian (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 40 (99%), perf. rating 151
09/12 W 20-13 H #102 Perkins (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 14 (80%), perf. rating 149
09/19 A #4 Bishop Watterson (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 31 (3%)
10/10 H #380 St Vincent-St Mary (0-4) D2 R5, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/17 A #144 Westerville South (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 15 (84%)
10/24 H #427 KIPP Columbus (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 42 (99%)
Regular season projections
5-3 record
16.01 Harbin points (divisor 76)
#7 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
88% (bubble if 4-4), 58% home (maybe if 5-3), 3% bye (maybe if 6-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 22.91 (15.75-27.03) 100% in, 99% home, 72% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#9), bye 72%
Lose: 15.55 ( 7.47-20.68) 88% in, 56% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 23.08 (19.59-27.03) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#7), bye 79%
(76%) 5W: 16.01 (11.01-24.04) 99% in, 72% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 18%
(21%) 4W: 10.72 ( 7.69-18.55) 47% in, 4% home, proj. out (#5-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 21%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWW: 23.08 (19.59-27.03) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#7), bye 79%
(75%) LWWW: 16.01 (11.01-20.68) 99% in, 72% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 18%
(19%) LWLW: 10.72 ( 7.69-14.21) 43% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 23%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 149.8, #58, D5 #4), 88% (bubble if 4-4), 58% home (maybe if 5-3), 3% bye (maybe if 6-2), proj. #7 at 5-3
Week 3 (1-2, 148.3, #71, D5 #4), 65% (bubble if 4-4), 30% home (maybe if 5-3), 2% bye (maybe if 6-2), proj. #8 at 5-3
Week 2 (0-2, 150.2, #58, D5 #5), 61% (bubble if 4-4), 24% home (maybe if 5-3), 4% bye (maybe if 6-2), proj. #9 at 5-3
Week 1 (0-1, 150.2, #63, D5 #3), 67% (bubble if 4-4), 38% home (maybe if 5-3), 15% bye (maybe if 6-2), proj. #9 at 5-3
Week 0 (0-0, 149.1, #62, D5 #3), 64% (bubble if 4-4), 41% home (maybe if 5-3), 21% bye (maybe if 6-2), proj. #6 at 5-3
Last season 148.5