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Rankings
#21 of 102 in Division 3
#8 of 26 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #10 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #15 in D3 (+229 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 32-14 A #230 Gilmour Academy (3-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 15 (75%), perf. rating 148
08/28 W 7-3 H #249 Padua Franciscan (3-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 31 (94%), perf. rating 120
09/04 W 41-0 A #493 Lutheran West (1-5) D3 R10, pick: W by 40 (99%), perf. rating 143
09/11 L 31-13 H #93 Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (5-1) D3 R9, pick: W by 2 (55%), perf. rating 111
09/18 W 6-0 A #153 Lake Catholic (3-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 141
09/25 L 42-6 H #13 St Ignatius (4-2) D1 R1, pick: L by 35 (1%), perf. rating 122
10/02 A #52 Cardinal Mooney (3-3) D5 R17, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/16 A #50 Villa Angela-St Joseph (4-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/23 A #397 St Vincent-St Mary (1-5) D3 R10, pick: W by 29 (97%)
Regular season projections
5-4 record
14.39 Harbin points (divisor 90)
out of R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
37% (bubble if 5-4), 6% home (maybe if 6-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.00 (14.28-25.61) 98% in, 33% home, 5% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Glenville (4-2) 15%
Lose: 14.39 (10.00-22.56) 32% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Gilmour Academy (3-3) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
(12%) 6W: 18.67 (14.28-22.56) 99% in, 42% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Glenville (4-2) 16%
(84%) 5W: 14.39 (11.22-19.44) 28% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Gilmour Academy (3-3) 19%
( 3%) 4W: 13.11 (10.00-15.56) 10% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 6%) LWW: 19.50 (15.72-22.56) 99% in, 61% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Glenville (4-2) 15%
( 6%) WLW: 18.00 (14.28-20.50) 98% in, 23% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Glenville (4-2) 17%
(84%) LLW: 14.39 (11.22-17.61) 28% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Gilmour Academy (3-3) 19%
( 3%) LLL: 13.11 (10.00-15.56) 10% in, proj. out (#11-out), Gilmour Academy (3-3) 21%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (4-2, 130.2, #149, D3 #21), 37% (bubble if 5-4), 6% home (maybe if 6-3), proj. out at 5-4
Week 5 (4-1, 130.9, #147, D3 #25), 55% (bubble if 5-4), 9% home (maybe if 6-3), proj. out at 5-4
Week 4 (3-1, 127.8, #161, D3 #27), 32% (bubble if 5-4), 7% home (maybe if 6-3), proj. out at 5-4
Week 3 (3-0, 136.2, #111, D3 #19), 73% (bubble if 5-4), 46% home (maybe if 6-3), 13% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #8 at 5-4
Week 2 (2-0, 131.3, #141, D3 #21), 48% (bubble if 5-4), 23% home (maybe if 6-3), 6% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. out at 5-4
Week 1 (1-0, 139.2, #98, D3 #13), 52% (bubble if 5-4), 31% home (maybe if 6-3), 13% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #10 at 6-3
Week 0 (0-0, 135.5, #117, D3 #18), 44% (bubble if 6-3), 26% home (maybe if 7-2), 11% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. out at 5-4
Last season 132.0