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Rankings
#20 of 107 in Division 3
#4 of 26 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #3 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #11 in D3 (+250 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 37-7 H #9 Ursuline (2-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 19 (19%), perf. rating 132
08/29 L 30-0 H #27 Indian Valley (3-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 118
09/12 W 27-24 H #68 Cardinal Mooney (2-2) D5 R17, pick: L by 11 (26%), perf. rating 150
09/19 A Linsly WV (1-2) D7
09/26 A #246 Dover (1-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 21 (91%)
10/03 H Farrell PA (2-1) D7
10/10 H Canisius NY (1-1) D2
10/17 H McDowell PA (1-3) D1
10/24 H Wheeling Park WV (2-1) D2
Regular season projections
4-5 record
13.97 Harbin points (divisor 74)
#10 seed in R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
77% (bubble if 3-6), 23% home (maybe if 5-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.13 ( 4.27-28.20) 83% in, 29% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Bloom-Carroll (2-2) 15%
Lose: 13.40 ( 2.66-27.20) 70% in, 17% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Bloom-Carroll (2-2) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 23.00 (17.46-28.20) 100% in, 98% home, 18% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 18%
(10%) 6W: 20.11 (12.94-27.20) 100% in, 80% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Athens (4-0) 19%
(26%) 5W: 17.01 ( 9.71-24.18) 98% in, 40% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Linden McKinley (4-0) 16%
(34%) 4W: 13.97 ( 7.90-20.74) 87% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Granville (3-1) 16%
(22%) 3W: 10.97 ( 6.41-15.89) 45% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Bloom-Carroll (2-2) 17%
( 6%) 2W: 8.13 ( 4.27-11.98) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 23.00 (17.46-28.20) 100% in, 98% home, 18% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 18%
( 4%) WWLWWL: 16.13 (10.66-21.54) 98% in, 25% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Bloom-Carroll (2-2) 15%
( 4%) LWLLWW: 15.81 (11.22-20.74) 97% in, 18% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Bloom-Carroll (2-2) 17%
( 5%) LWLWWL: 14.46 (10.34-20.07) 92% in, 10% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Granville (3-1) 15%
( 5%) WWLLWL: 12.97 ( 7.90-16.82) 76% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Granville (3-1) 18%
( 6%) LWLLWL: 11.16 ( 6.56-15.41) 46% in, proj. out (#9-out), Granville (3-1) 19%
( 4%) WWLLLL: 9.88 ( 6.77-12.18) 25% in, proj. out (#10-out), Bloom-Carroll (2-2) 21%
( 4%) LWLLLL: 8.41 ( 5.50-10.71) 5% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bloom-Carroll (2-2) 23%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-2, 139.5, #109, D3 #20), 77% (bubble if 3-6), 23% home (maybe if 5-4), proj. #10 at 4-5
Week 3 (0-2, 133.6, #140, D3 #28), 21% (bubble if 4-5), 4% home (maybe if 5-4), proj. out at 2-7
Week 2 (0-2, 133.0, #131, D3 #23), 12% (bubble if 4-5), 2% home (maybe if 5-4), proj. out at 2-7
Week 1 (0-1, 146.9, #72, D3 #10), 45% (bubble if 4-6), 17% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 153.8, #44, D3 #7), 62% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Last season 157.4