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Rankings
#3 of 102 in Division 3
#1 of 25 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #1 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #1 in D3 (+662 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 35-14 H #77 Riverside (Painesville) (3-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 16 (77%), perf. rating 174
08/28 W 44-14 H #89 Dover (4-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 26 (90%), perf. rating 184
09/04 W 48-7 H Linsly WV (2-2) D5
09/11 W 21-16 A #52 Cardinal Mooney (3-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 3 (57%), perf. rating 162
09/18 L 41-13 A #22 Indian Valley (5-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 6 (35%), perf. rating 127
09/25 W 37-14 H #167 Wheelersburg (3-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 25 (94%), perf. rating 160
10/01 A #29 Ursuline (4-2) D3 R9, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/09 H Buffalo Health Sci. NY (2-2) D3
10/16 H #37 DeSales (Columbus) (4-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/23 H Washington Digital Pioneers Academy DC (4-1) D5
Regular season projections
7-3 record
27.11 Harbin points (divisor 94)
#2 seed in R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 93% bye (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 30.54 (21.93-37.20) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#6), bye 99%
Lose: 25.57 (16.97-34.37) 100% in, 99% home, 91% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#9), bye 91%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 9W: 34.65 (31.19-37.20) 100% bye, #1, bye 100%
(23%) 8W: 31.07 (26.82-34.37) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(37%) 7W: 27.11 (22.54-30.56) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(27%) 6W: 23.43 (19.59-27.09) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 94%
( 6%) 5W: 20.16 (16.97-22.18) 100% in, 99% home, 24% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 24%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWW: 34.65 (31.19-37.20) 100% bye, #1, bye 100%
( 5%) WWWL: 31.33 (27.98-33.88) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(10%) LWWW: 31.07 (27.40-34.37) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 8%) LWWL: 27.75 (24.66-30.56) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(15%) LWLW: 26.21 (22.54-28.87) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 8%) LLLW: 23.54 (20.66-25.98) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 95%
(13%) LWLL: 22.84 (19.59-25.66) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 90%
( 6%) LLLL: 20.16 (16.97-22.18) 100% in, 99% home, 24% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 24%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (5-1, 155.5, #46, D3 #3), appears locked in and likely home, 93% bye (maybe if 5-5), proj. #2 at 7-3
Week 5 (4-1, 154.2, #49, D3 #4), likely in, 98% home, 78% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #2 at 7-3
Week 4 (4-0, 161.5, #30, D3 #1), likely in and likely home, 93% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 158.2, #39, D3 #1), likely in, 84% home (maybe if 5-5), 52% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 161.8, #34, D3 #1), likely in, 92% home (maybe if 4-6), 71% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #1 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 154.3, #43, D3 #2), 86% (bubble if 4-6), 64% home (maybe if 5-5), 35% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #4 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 149.9, #56, D3 #5), 73% (bubble if 4-6), 52% home (maybe if 5-5), 27% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 5-5
Last season 148.0