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Rankings
#50 of 107 in Division 3
#11 of 26 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #28 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #85 in D3 (-470 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 18-7 A #274 GlenOak (1-3) D1 R1, pick: W by 14 (74%), perf. rating 130
08/29 L 28-22 H #194 Maple Heights (3-1) D3 R9, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 113
09/05 L 28-7 H #119 West Holmes (3-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 13 (77%), perf. rating 104
09/12 L 40-34 H #273 Columbus Academy (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 22 (90%), perf. rating 101
09/19 A #74 Ashland (4-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 27 (5%)
09/26 H #109 Steubenville (1-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 21 (9%)
10/03 A #446 Wooster (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/10 H #338 Madison (Mansfield) (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/17 A Linsly WV (1-2) D7
10/24 H #207 New Philadelphia (1-3) D3 R11, pick: L by 3 (42%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
6.73 Harbin points (divisor 97)
out of R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.54 ( 6.87-18.54) 52% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Granville (3-1) 16%
Lose: 5.92 ( 1.22-14.23) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 11.94 ( 8.61-17.01) 52% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Granville (3-1) 20%
(19%) 5W: 8.73 ( 5.95-14.81) 6% in, proj. out (#9-out), Hamilton Township (4-0) 23%
(37%) 4W: 6.73 ( 4.21-12.40) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(30%) 3W: 4.64 ( 2.53- 9.17) out, proj. out
( 9%) 2W: 2.95 ( 1.82- 6.87) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLWWLW: 12.38 (10.17-14.81) 49% in, proj. out (#10-out), Hamilton Township (4-0) 25%
( 3%) LWWWLW: 9.45 ( 6.82-12.33) 9% in, proj. out (#11-out), Granville (3-1) 29%
(13%) LLWWWW: 8.58 ( 6.31-11.31) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Hamilton Township (4-0) 38%
(16%) LLWWLW: 7.30 ( 5.24-10.39) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Granville (3-1) 100%
(16%) LLWWWL: 6.07 ( 4.21- 8.90) out
(20%) LLWWLL: 4.64 ( 3.50- 7.11) out
( 5%) LLWLWL: 3.97 ( 2.53- 6.08) out
( 7%) LLWLLL: 2.38 ( 1.82- 5.53) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 116.3, #246, D3 #50), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 125.9, #183, D3 #40), 43% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 138.6, #108, D3 #18), 82% (bubble if 5-5), 53% home (maybe if 7-3), 16% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 141.4, #92, D3 #16), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 64% home (maybe if 7-3), 34% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 140.5, #102, D3 #22), 74% (bubble if 5-5), 58% home (maybe if 6-4), 34% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Last season 140.6