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Rankings
#18 of 107 in Division 3
#3 of 26 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #64 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #17 in D3 (+148 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 28-6 A #298 Sheridan (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 12 (71%), perf. rating 144
08/29 W 28-14 H #259 Amanda-Clearcreek (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 37 (97%), perf. rating 134
09/05 W 35-20 H #236 Bishop Ready (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 11 (73%), perf. rating 138
09/12 W 41-14 A #254 Heath (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 14 (80%), perf. rating 157
09/19 A #570 Newark Catholic (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 46 (99%)
09/26 H #397 Licking Heights (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/03 H #569 Zanesville (0-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 48 (99%)
10/10 A #165 Granville (3-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/17 H #297 Mount Vernon (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/24 A #233 Watkins Memorial (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 21 (92%)
Regular season projections
10-0 record
27.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#3 seed in R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 66% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 26.20 (12.70-31.00) 99% in, 99% home, 66% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 67%
Lose: 22.12 (14.05-28.75) 100% in, 94% home, 37% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#11), bye 37%
Based on eventual number of wins
(61%) 10W: 27.20 (22.75-31.00) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 95%
(30%) 9W: 22.95 (18.25-28.80) 100% in, 99% home, 26% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 26%
( 8%) 8W: 19.70 (15.40-25.10) 100% in, 92% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Athens (4-0) 17%
( 1%) 7W: 16.62 (12.70-20.95) 99% in, 47% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Athens (4-0) 20%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(61%) WWWWWW: 27.20 (22.75-31.00) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 95%
( 7%) WWWWWL: 23.85 (19.55-27.65) 100% home, 56% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 56%
( 2%) WWWWLW: 23.40 (19.90-27.25) 100% home, 54% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 54%
(20%) WWWLWW: 22.55 (18.25-26.30) 100% in, 99% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Bishop Hartley (3-1) 13%
( 5%) WWWLWL: 19.60 (15.90-23.15) 100% in, 90% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Bishop Hartley (3-1) 17%
( 1%) WWWLLW: 18.95 (15.40-22.25) 100% in, 91% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Bishop Hartley (3-1) 19%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 141.1, #99, D3 #18), likely in and likely home, 66% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 10-0
Week 3 (3-0, 134.0, #138, D3 #27), likely in, 91% home (maybe if 7-3), 19% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #6 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 130.5, #153, D3 #28), 94% (bubble if 6-4), 77% home (maybe if 7-3), 42% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 140.7, #94, D3 #17), 97% (bubble if 6-4), 88% home (maybe if 7-3), 56% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 134.3, #128, D3 #30), 80% (bubble if 6-4), 64% home (maybe if 7-3), 39% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Last season 138.7