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Rankings
#39 of 102 in Division 4
#10 of 26 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #65 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #46 in D4 (-170 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 21-7 H #233 Delaware Hayes (2-5) D1 R3, pick: W by 7 (63%), perf. rating 95
08/28 W 26-0 A #452 Africentric Early Coll. (2-5) D5 R19, pick: L by 8 (34%), perf. rating 127
09/04 W 35-21 H #486 River Valley (Caled.) (0-7) D4 R14, pick: W by 31 (96%), perf. rating 102
09/11 W 27-12 A #423 Licking Heights (1-6) D1 R3, pick: W by 19 (87%), perf. rating 116
09/18 L 28-21 A #365 Bishop Hartley (2-5) D3 R11, pick: W by 14 (81%), perf. rating 91
09/25 W 10-6 H #402 Franklin Heights (0-7) D2 R8, pick: W by 21 (91%), perf. rating 99
10/02 W 34-7 A #398 Bishop Ready (3-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 2 (55%), perf. rating 137
10/09 A #192 Columbus Academy (5-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 15 (16%)
10/16 H #250 Whitehall-Yearling (5-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/23 H #440 Bexley (3-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 24 (94%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
10.98 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
46% (likely needs 7-3), 14% home (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.54 (10.83-20.92) 95% in, 66% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#3-out), Union Local (6-1) 15%
Lose: 11.53 ( 6.54-17.23) 37% in, 4% home, proj. out (#5-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 8W: 19.05 (17.84-20.92) 100% home, 14% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), Union Local (6-1) 19%
(39%) 7W: 14.86 (13.50-17.69) 91% in, 12% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 17%
(47%) 6W: 10.98 ( 9.77-14.51) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 38%
( 5%) 5W: 8.26 ( 6.54-10.98) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWW: 19.05 (17.84-20.92) 100% home, 14% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), Union Local (6-1) 19%
(33%) LWW: 14.86 (13.65-17.23) 91% in, 11% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 17%
( 6%) WLW: 14.81 (13.50-16.58) 90% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 16%
( 2%) LWL: 12.14 (10.98-14.51) 22% in, proj. out (#10-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 28%
(45%) LLW: 10.98 ( 9.77-13.65) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 42%
( 5%) LLL: 8.26 ( 6.54-10.98) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 111.3, #284, D4 #39), 46% (likely needs 7-3), 14% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 6 (4-2, 105.9, #323, D4 #45), 23% (likely needs 7-3), 8% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 5 (3-2, 108.9, #299, D4 #40), 31% (likely needs 7-3), 10% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 4 (3-1, 115.7, #253, D4 #38), 64% (bubble if 7-3), 32% home (maybe if 8-2), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 117.8, #238, D4 #29), 78% (bubble if 6-4), 51% home (maybe if 8-2), 19% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 124.3, #188, D4 #24), 82% (bubble if 6-4), 56% home (maybe if 7-3), 21% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 110.2, #285, D4 #38), 46% (bubble if 5-5), 27% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 119.7, #205, D4 #21), 72% (bubble if 5-5), 57% home (maybe if 6-4), 34% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 7-3
Last season 125.0