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Rankings
#38 of 107 in Division 3
#7 of 26 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #72 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #20 in D3 (+82 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 28-7 A #293 Delaware Hayes (2-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 22 (16%), perf. rating 143
08/29 W 29-3 H #254 Heath (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 19 (83%), perf. rating 152
09/05 W 38-15 A #375 River Valley (Caled.) (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 19 (86%), perf. rating 135
09/12 W 21-13 A #397 Licking Heights (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 34 (98%), perf. rating 110
09/19 H #197 Hamilton Township (4-0) D3 R11, pick: W by 6 (65%)
09/26 A #390 Franklin Heights (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 25 (94%)
10/03 H #236 Bishop Ready (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 12 (78%)
10/10 H #273 Columbus Academy (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 17 (87%)
10/17 A #328 Whitehall-Yearling (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/24 A #467 Bexley (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 33 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
25.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 95% home (maybe if 7-3), 65% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 28.70 (14.60-34.05) 100% in, 99% home, 89% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#11), bye 89%
Lose: 21.85 ( 8.60-28.70) 99% in, 86% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), bye 20%
Based on eventual number of wins
(42%) 10W: 29.55 (25.45-34.05) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(30%) 9W: 25.50 (21.30-30.60) 100% home, 70% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 70%
(16%) 8W: 21.55 (17.60-26.55) 100% in, 99% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Athens (4-0) 14%
( 7%) 7W: 18.00 (14.00-23.80) 100% in, 75% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Athens (4-0) 18%
( 3%) 6W: 14.80 (11.90-21.30) 98% in, 23% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Bishop Hartley (3-1) 21%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(42%) WWWWWW: 29.55 (25.45-34.05) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 7%) WWLWWW: 26.00 (22.70-30.15) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 91%
( 4%) WWWWLW: 25.80 (22.05-30.10) 100% home, 86% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 86%
( 4%) WWWLWW: 25.55 (21.85-30.00) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 90%
(14%) LWWWWW: 25.05 (21.30-28.70) 100% home, 46% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 46%
( 2%) WWLLWW: 22.27 (19.55-25.75) 100% in, 99% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 29%
( 5%) LWLWWW: 21.25 (18.85-25.30) 100% in, 99% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Athens (4-0) 16%
( 1%) LWLLLW: 14.75 (12.50-18.35) 99% in, 24% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Bishop Hartley (3-1) 19%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 127.0, #173, D3 #38), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 7-3), 65% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 133.0, #144, D3 #30), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 6-4), 70% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 10-0
Week 2 (2-0, 127.1, #170, D3 #33), 97% (bubble if 5-5), 89% home (maybe if 7-3), 70% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 122.8, #191, D3 #37), 88% (bubble if 5-5), 71% home (maybe if 7-3), 40% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 104.6, #318, D3 #65), 35% (bubble if 6-4), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 105.9