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Rankings
#2 of 105 in Division 4
#1 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #52 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #1 in D4 (+930 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 28-21 A #83 Green (Uniontown) (1-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 5 (59%), perf. rating 157
08/29 W 30-0 A #109 Steubenville (1-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 186
09/05 W 49-20 H Roosevelt DC (1-2) D3
09/19 A #635 Buckeye Trail (0-4) D6 R23, pick: W by 49 (99%)
09/26 A #607 Sandy Valley (0-4) D5 R17, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/03 H #179 Garaway (3-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/10 H #241 Ridgewood (4-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/17 A #561 Tuscarawas Valley (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/23 H #395 Claymont (3-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 46 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-0 record
24.49 Harbin points (divisor 86)
#1 seed in R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 95% bye (maybe if 8-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 24.37 (15.17-30.01) 100% in, 99% home, 95% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#11), bye 95%
Lose: 23.29 (19.30-26.66) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 92%
Based on eventual number of wins
(93%) 9W: 24.49 (19.37-30.01) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 98%
( 7%) 8W: 21.49 (15.79-27.77) 100% in, 99% home, 69% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 69%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(93%) WWWWWW: 24.49 (19.37-30.01) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 98%
( 1%) WWWWWL: 20.73 (18.12-25.68) 100% home, 66% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 66%
( 2%) WWLWWW: 20.15 (16.66-24.92) 100% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#8), bye 49%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-0, 164.3, #27, D4 #2), appears locked in and likely home, 95% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #1 at 9-0
Week 3 (3-0, 163.4, #28, D4 #2), appears locked in and likely home, 88% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #2 at 9-0
Week 2 (2-0, 161.6, #30, D4 #2), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 7-2), 67% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #3 at 9-0
Week 1 (1-0, 151.1, #58, D4 #4), 98% (bubble if 5-4), 92% home (maybe if 6-3), 64% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #2 at 8-1
Week 0 (0-0, 149.4, #59, D4 #4), 90% (bubble if 4-5), 78% home (maybe if 5-4), 53% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #1 at 7-2
Last season 152.0