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Rankings
#5 of 106 in Division 5
#1 of 28 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #1 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #3 in D5 (+477 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 30-13 A #73 Lake Catholic (3-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 17 (22%), perf. rating 173
08/30 W 27-20 H #67 Villa Angela-St Joseph (2-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 156
09/05 L 24-14 A #48 Canfield (4-0) D3 R9, pick: W by 17 (83%), perf. rating 139
09/12 L 27-24 A #109 Steubenville (1-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 11 (74%), perf. rating 137
09/20 H #117 Chardon (3-1) D3 R9, pick: W by 11 (75%)
09/26 H #151 Boardman (2-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 17 (86%)
10/03 H #238 Chaney (1-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 28 (96%)
10/09 A #116 Warren G Harding (2-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/17 A #98 South Range (3-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 4 (60%)
Regular season projections
6-3 record
25.41 Harbin points (divisor 86)
#1 seed in R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 98% home (maybe if 3-6), 87% bye (maybe if 4-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 26.81 (11.89-34.11) 100% in, 99% home, 97% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#9), bye 97%
Lose: 18.75 ( 8.32-28.44) 99% in, 92% home, 56% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 57%
Based on eventual number of wins
(34%) 7W: 29.45 (22.48-34.11) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(31%) 6W: 25.41 (19.65-30.71) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(20%) 5W: 21.43 (15.61-26.61) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 91%
(11%) 4W: 17.33 (12.85-22.27) 100% in, 98% home, 37% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 37%
( 4%) 3W: 14.10 (10.21-18.41) 100% in, 71% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#12), Liberty (3-1) 14%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(34%) WWWWW: 29.45 (22.48-34.11) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 8%) WWWLW: 26.17 (20.13-30.71) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(14%) WWWWL: 24.94 (19.65-29.59) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 5%) LWWWW: 24.48 (20.24-28.44) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 8%) WWWLL: 22.07 (15.61-26.08) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 93%
( 4%) LWWWL: 19.97 (16.19-23.40) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 79%
( 5%) LWWLL: 16.69 (12.85-19.94) 100% in, 97% home, 19% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 19%
( 3%) LLWLL: 14.05 (10.21-16.02) 100% in, 68% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Pymatuning Valley (3-1) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 147.2, #68, D5 #5), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 3-6), 87% bye (maybe if 4-5), proj. #1 at 6-3
Week 3 (2-1, 146.3, #81, D5 #6), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 3-7), 85% bye (maybe if 5-5), proj. #2 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 151.5, #54, D5 #4), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 4-6), 91% bye (maybe if 5-5), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 146.9, #73, D5 #4), 85% (bubble if 4-6), 73% home (maybe if 5-5), 56% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #2 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 132.5, #142, D5 #10), 41% (bubble if 4-6), 27% home (maybe if 5-5), 16% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 133.6