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Rankings
#3 of 105 in Division 5
#2 of 27 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #1 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #5 in D5 (+557 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 41-7 H #175 Lake Catholic (1-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 174
08/28 L 39-37 A #77 Garfield Heights (3-0) D3 R9, pick: W by 28 (92%), perf. rating 141
09/04 W 19-7 H #120 Canfield (0-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 23 (90%), perf. rating 151
09/11 H #39 Steubenville (3-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 3 (43%)
09/19 A #243 Buchtel (1-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 29 (97%)
09/25 H St Francis NY (1-0) D3
10/02 H #111 Benedictine (3-0) D3 R9, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/09 H #74 Warren G Harding (2-1) D2 R5, pick: W by 12 (79%)
10/16 A #397 St Vincent-St Mary (0-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/23 H #45 Ursuline (1-2) D3 R9, pick: L by 1 (47%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
21.37 Harbin points (divisor 97)
#3 seed in R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 92% home (maybe if 5-5), 59% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 24.71 ( 8.33-33.14) 99% in, 99% home, 86% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 86%
Lose: 18.76 ( 2.85-29.86) 98% in, 87% home, 39% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 40%
Based on eventual number of wins
(11%) 9W: 28.20 (22.32-33.14) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(26%) 8W: 24.86 (18.52-30.64) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(28%) 7W: 21.37 (15.71-27.61) 100% in, 99% home, 70% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#10), bye 70%
(21%) 6W: 17.89 (12.58-23.66) 100% in, 97% home, 19% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 19%
(11%) 5W: 14.55 ( 8.73-20.33) 99% in, 69% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Martins Ferry (3-0) 15%
( 3%) 4W: 11.01 ( 6.89-16.32) 85% in, 14% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Martins Ferry (3-0) 18%
( 1%) 3W: 7.73 ( 4.59-11.91) 29% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(11%) WWWWWWW: 28.20 (22.32-33.14) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(11%) WWLWWWW: 25.17 (20.02-30.64) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
( 5%) WWWWWWL: 25.02 (19.81-29.66) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
( 7%) LWWWWWW: 24.30 (18.52-29.86) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
( 7%) LWWWWWL: 21.32 (16.22-26.89) 100% home, 70% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 70%
( 7%) LWLWWWW: 21.27 (16.17-26.37) 100% in, 99% home, 68% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#10), bye 68%
( 7%) LWLWWWL: 18.14 (12.78-22.42) 100% in, 98% home, 21% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#11), bye 21%
( 2%) LWLLLWL: 11.12 ( 6.99-14.88) 87% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Martins Ferry (3-0) 17%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 153.3, #52, D5 #3), likely in, 92% home (maybe if 5-5), 59% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 154.9, #50, D5 #3), 98% (bubble if 3-7), 91% home (maybe if 5-5), 57% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 163.8, #29, D5 #1), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 5-5), 87% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 147.2, #66, D5 #5), 83% (bubble if 4-6), 68% home (maybe if 5-5), 42% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 152.4