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Rankings
#3 of 104 in Division 3
#1 of 27 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #3 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #12 in D3 (+186 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 31-7 A #31 DeSales (Columbus) (3-0) D2 R7, pick: W by 30 (92%), perf. rating 130
08/28 W 43-10 A #174 Louisville (2-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 22 (87%), perf. rating 177
09/05 L 41-10 H #2 Bishop Watterson (3-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 24 (9%), perf. rating 143
09/11 A #217 Youngstown (1-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 28 (95%)
09/18 A #73 Warren G Harding (2-1) D2 R5, pick: W by 11 (75%)
09/25 A Farrell PA (2-0) D7
10/01 H #37 Steubenville (3-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/09 A #1 Walsh Jesuit (3-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/16 H #506 Shaw (1-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/23 A #52 Cardinal Mooney (2-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 1 (53%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
14.84 Harbin points (divisor 96)
#12 seed in R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
54% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.98 ( 4.98-31.23) 55% in, 26% home, 3% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Hawken (3-1) 9%
Lose: 9.99 ( 3.86-19.98) 18% in, 5% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 7W: 22.09 (17.82-26.93) 100% in, 97% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 30%
(26%) 6W: 18.89 (13.52-24.03) 98% in, 61% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Hawken (3-1) 10%
(33%) 5W: 14.84 (10.36-20.77) 58% in, 8% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Hawken (3-1) 10%
(23%) 4W: 11.37 ( 7.16-16.78) 9% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Hawken (3-1) 14%
( 9%) 3W: 8.08 ( 4.98-12.48) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 6%) WWWWLWW: 21.93 (17.82-26.93) 100% in, 97% home, 26% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 26%
(16%) WWLWLWW: 19.50 (15.39-24.03) 99% in, 73% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Hawken (3-1) 10%
( 5%) WWWLLWW: 17.74 (13.52-22.43) 96% in, 42% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Benedictine (3-0) 10%
(12%) WWLLLWW: 15.25 (10.72-20.77) 65% in, 9% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Hawken (3-1) 10%
( 9%) WWLWLWL: 14.83 (11.13-19.26) 61% in, 7% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (2-1) 12%
( 5%) WWWLLWL: 13.67 (10.36-18.80) 36% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (2-1) 12%
(12%) WWLLLWL: 11.36 ( 7.25-16.78) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Garfield Heights (3-0) 12%
( 8%) WLLLLWL: 7.90 ( 4.98-12.48) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 155.8, #45, D3 #3), 57% (bubble if 5-5), 29% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 159.9, #40, D3 #2), 55% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 155.3, #42, D3 #1), 49% (bubble if 5-5), 24% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 179.4, #6, D3 #1), 87% (bubble if 6-4), 68% home (maybe if 7-3), 37% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Last season 180.2