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Rankings
#68 of 105 in Division 4
#18 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #14 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #85 in D4 (-555 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 43-8 H #94 Wheelersburg (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 32 (7%), perf. rating 88
08/29 L 37-6 A #230 Marysville (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 24 (11%), perf. rating 74
09/05 L 17-12 H #305 Northland (2-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 11 (27%), perf. rating 99
09/12 L 14-8 A #390 Franklin Heights (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 10 (28%), perf. rating 91
09/19 A #236 Bishop Ready (1-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 25 (6%)
09/26 H #443 Cincinnati College Prep (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/03 A #402 Dawson-Bryant (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/10 H #163 Worthington Kilbourne (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/17 H #110 Bishop Hartley (3-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/24 A #58 Harvest Prep (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 42 (1%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
3.31 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.60 ( 1.67-16.68) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Lose: 3.31 ( 0.00-14.91) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 3W: 9.31 ( 6.66-12.47) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(27%) 2W: 6.06 ( 3.50- 8.91) out, proj. out
(42%) 1W: 3.31 ( 1.27- 5.09) out, proj. out
(25%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWWLL: 9.77 ( 7.06-12.47) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bishop Ready (1-3) 25%
( 3%) WWWLLL: 8.83 ( 6.66-11.30) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 33%
( 2%) WWLLLL: 6.11 ( 3.50- 7.74) out
(23%) LWWLLL: 6.00 ( 3.61- 7.38) out
(32%) LWLLLL: 3.31 ( 1.88- 3.82) out
( 8%) LLWLLL: 2.64 ( 1.27- 3.56) out
(25%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 91.3, #427, D4 #68), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 88.5, #434, D4 #71), 3% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 87.3, #453, D4 #76), 8% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 90.4, #436, D4 #74), 14% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 93.1, #423, D4 #73), 23% (bubble if 4-6), 12% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 97.4