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Rankings
#80 of 104 in Division 3
#18 of 25 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #68 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #96 in D3 (-793 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 27-21 A #502 Beechcroft (1-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 19 (81%), perf. rating 72
08/28 L 35-21 H #262 Marysville (2-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 25 (10%), perf. rating 91
09/04 L 38-0 A #261 Northmont (1-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 22 (11%), perf. rating 60
09/11 H #424 Franklin Heights (0-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 7 (34%)
09/18 A #295 Whitehall-Yearling (1-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 27 (5%)
09/25 A #334 Cincinnati College Prep (3-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/02 H #503 Dawson-Bryant (0-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/09 A #41 Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/16 H #309 Northwest (Cincy) (3-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/23 H #131 Harvest Prep (0-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 37 (1%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
1.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.05 ( 0.60-17.55) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Granville (2-1) 13%
Lose: 0.90 ( 0.00-17.10) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 5W: 13.40 ( 9.35-17.55) 75% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Tri-Valley (2-1) 12%
( 3%) 4W: 10.05 ( 4.55-15.40) 22% in, proj. out (#10-out), Jonathan Alder (3-0) 14%
( 9%) 3W: 6.60 ( 2.70-12.20) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(23%) 2W: 3.35 ( 1.05-10.05) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(35%) 1W: 1.35 ( 0.45- 6.35) out, proj. out
(28%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWLWL: 13.70 (11.00-16.35) 83% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Jackson (2-1) 13%
( 2%) WLWWLLL: 6.90 ( 4.20- 9.30) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), East (Columbus) (2-1) 33%
( 3%) WLLWLWL: 6.40 ( 4.15- 9.55) out
( 3%) LLLWLWL: 5.15 ( 3.10- 7.45) out
(13%) WLLWLLL: 2.55 ( 1.05- 5.55) out
(24%) LLLWLLL: 1.35 ( 0.45- 3.20) out
( 7%) WLLLLLL: 1.15 ( 0.60- 3.35) out
(28%) LLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (0-3, 81.5, #486, D3 #80), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 87.3, #450, D3 #80), 5% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 86.5, #451, D3 #77), 10% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 95.9, #402, D3 #74), 31% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 96.1