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Rankings
#81 of 102 in Division 3
#18 of 25 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #60 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #95 in D3 (-628 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 27-21 A #498 Beechcroft (3-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 19 (81%), perf. rating 73
08/28 L 35-21 H #290 Marysville (2-4) D1 R2, pick: L by 25 (10%), perf. rating 88
09/04 L 38-0 A #293 Northmont (1-5) D1 R2, pick: L by 22 (11%), perf. rating 55
09/11 W 20-6 H #406 Franklin Heights (0-6) D2 R8, pick: L by 7 (34%), perf. rating 112
09/18 L 27-0 A #214 Whitehall-Yearling (4-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 26 (5%), perf. rating 82
09/25 L 30-8 A #327 Cincinnati College Prep (6-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 17 (14%), perf. rating 75
10/02 H #528 Dawson-Bryant (2-4) D5 R19, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/09 A #38 Worthington Kilbourne (6-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 47 (1%)
10/16 H #255 Northwest (Cincy) (6-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/23 H #146 Harvest Prep (1-5) D6 R23, pick: L by 33 (1%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
2.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
unlikely to contend for playoffs
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.90 ( 1.95-13.85) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Lose: 1.15 ( 0.60-10.55) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 3W: 7.15 ( 3.40-10.55) out, proj. out
(74%) 2W: 2.90 ( 1.95- 7.40) out, proj. out
(19%) 1W: 1.15 ( 0.60- 2.70) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WLWL: 7.15 ( 5.70- 9.15) out
( 1%) WLLW: 4.45 ( 3.40- 6.00) out
(73%) WLLL: 2.90 ( 1.95- 4.90) out
(19%) LLLL: 1.15 ( 0.60- 2.70) out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (1-5, 86.2, #458, D3 #81), unlikely to contend for playoffs, proj. out at 2-8
Week 5 (1-4, 87.1, #447, D3 #79), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 4 (1-3, 87.8, #445, D3 #78), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 81.5, #486, D3 #80), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 87.3, #450, D3 #80), 5% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 86.5, #451, D3 #77), 10% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 95.9, #402, D3 #74), 31% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 96.1