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Rankings
#39 of 104 in Division 2
#11 of 27 in Region 7
Strength of schedule #26 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #37 in D2 (-20 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 23-13 H #106 Dublin Jerome (3-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 123
08/29 W 24-0 A #183 Westerville Central (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 10 (69%), perf. rating 163
09/05 W 7-0 A #235 St Charles (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 23 (90%), perf. rating 130
09/12 W 26-18 H #258 Dublin Scioto (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 26 (94%), perf. rating 125
09/19 A #37 Big Walnut (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 25 (6%)
09/26 H #127 Westerville North (1-3) D1 R3, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/03 H #293 Delaware Hayes (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/10 A #200 Westland (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/17 H #58 Harvest Prep (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 15 (16%)
10/24 A #163 Worthington Kilbourne (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 2 (55%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
19.31 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#7 seed in R7 playoffs
Playoff chances now
80% (likely needs 5-5), 54% home (maybe if 6-4), 18% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 28.06 (13.83-33.26) 99% in, 97% home, 78% bye, proj. #2 (#1-out), bye 78%
Lose: 18.70 ( 8.13-28.27) 78% in, 52% home, 14% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 31.32 (29.38-33.26) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(10%) 8W: 26.23 (23.32-31.22) 100% home, 83% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 83%
(21%) 7W: 23.12 (19.20-27.26) 100% in, 99% home, 36% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 36%
(27%) 6W: 19.31 (15.74-24.47) 99% in, 71% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), Walnut Ridge (1-3) 12%
(23%) 5W: 15.60 (12.54-20.70) 80% in, 12% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Northland (2-2) 11%
(15%) 4W: 12.40 ( 9.29-16.99) 12% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), DeSales (Columbus) (3-1) 15%
( 3%) 3W: 10.01 ( 8.13-12.67) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 31.32 (29.38-33.26) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 8%) LWWWWW: 25.77 (23.32-28.27) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#6), bye 79%
(14%) LWWWLW: 23.23 (20.78-26.29) 100% home, 42% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 42%
(11%) LLWWLW: 19.36 (17.27-22.53) 100% in, 83% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Walnut Ridge (1-3) 15%
( 8%) LWWWLL: 18.80 (16.30-21.30) 99% in, 53% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Teays Valley (3-1) 11%
(12%) LLWWLL: 15.50 (13.05-18.66) 75% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-1) 13%
(12%) LLWLLL: 12.30 ( 9.29-15.66) 9% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Ashland (4-0) 14%
( 3%) LLLLLL: 10.01 ( 8.13-12.67) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 133.2, #144, D2 #39), 80% (likely needs 5-5), 54% home (maybe if 6-4), 18% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 134.7, #134, D2 #36), 81% (likely needs 5-5), 55% home (maybe if 6-4), 18% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 132.9, #133, D2 #36), 65% (bubble if 5-5), 41% home (maybe if 6-4), 16% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 123.8, #183, D2 #44), 54% (bubble if 4-6), 33% home (maybe if 5-5), 14% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 129.5, #154, D2 #36), 64% (bubble if 5-5), 46% home (maybe if 6-4), 23% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Last season 127.9