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Rankings
#62 of 80 in Division 1
#16 of 20 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #54 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #70 in D1 (-504 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 20-13 A #185 Dublin Jerome (1-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 137
08/28 L 17-0 H #163 Westerville Central (2-1) D1 R3, pick: W by 21 (85%), perf. rating 100
09/04 L 13-7 H #213 St Charles (3-0) D1 R3, pick: W by 13 (77%), perf. rating 110
09/11 A #361 Dublin Scioto (1-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 17 (84%)
09/18 H #16 Big Walnut (3-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 38 (1%)
09/25 A #121 Westerville North (2-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 18 (13%)
10/02 A #188 Delaware Hayes (2-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/09 H #138 Westland (2-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/16 A #131 Harvest Prep (0-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/23 H #41 Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 30 (2%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
7.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
17% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.60 ( 2.55-30.90) 20% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), St Charles (3-0) 12%
Lose: 3.90 ( 1.30-21.00) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 22.35 (19.85-27.15) 100% in, 97% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), St Charles (3-0) 14%
( 4%) 6W: 17.65 (14.15-23.60) 99% in, 37% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), St Charles (3-0) 18%
(10%) 5W: 13.50 ( 9.70-20.95) 73% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), St Charles (3-0) 13%
(17%) 4W: 10.40 ( 6.05-18.20) 26% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 20%
(26%) 3W: 7.55 ( 4.05-13.85) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 29%
(33%) 2W: 4.50 ( 2.55-10.80) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(10%) 1W: 3.20 ( 1.30- 5.80) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLWWWWW: 22.25 (19.85-24.80) 100% in, 97% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), St Charles (3-0) 13%
( 4%) WLLWWWL: 12.70 ( 9.70-16.55) 60% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Olentangy Berlin (2-1) 14%
( 5%) WLLWWLL: 10.70 ( 8.75-15.20) 27% in, proj. out (#9-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 20%
( 6%) WLLLWLL: 8.20 ( 5.10-11.45) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Pickerington North (2-1) 29%
( 4%) WLWLLLL: 7.10 ( 5.15-11.00) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 33%
(10%) WLLWLLL: 6.95 ( 5.00-11.45) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 41%
(29%) WLLLLLL: 4.50 ( 2.55- 8.40) out
(10%) LLLLLLL: 3.20 ( 1.30- 5.80) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 119.6, #226, D1 #62), 17% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 122.8, #199, D1 #58), 37% (bubble if 5-5), 14% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 137.8, #108, D1 #38), 80% (bubble if 4-6), 54% home (maybe if 6-4), 21% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 134.0, #132, D1 #42), 71% (bubble if 4-6), 47% home (maybe if 6-4), 18% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 136.7