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Rankings
#5 of 104 in Division 2
#2 of 27 in Region 5
Strength of schedule #15 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #6 in D2 (+410 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 31-12 H #58 Harvest Prep (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 28 (90%), perf. rating 176
08/30 L 58-28 A Archbishop Spalding MD (2-2) D2
09/05 W 23-21 H Detroit King MI (2-1) D3
09/12 W 52-0 H #211 East (Akron) (2-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 40 (99%), perf. rating 181
09/19 H #308 Brush (2-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 47 (99%)
09/26 H #6 Walsh Jesuit (4-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/10 H #18 Glenville (2-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 11 (77%)
10/17 H Central York PA (4-0) D1
10/24 H #2 St Edward (4-0) D1 R1, pick: L by 11 (23%)
Regular season projections
6-3 record
29.20 Harbin points (divisor 85)
#2 seed in R5 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 96% home (maybe if 4-5), 65% bye (likely needs 6-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 28.85 (13.80-46.24) 100% in, 96% home, 65% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#12), bye 65%
Lose: 19.63 (11.37-37.04) 99% in, 81% home, 30% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 30%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 8W: 42.06 (37.47-46.24) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(21%) 7W: 35.34 (29.92-39.45) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(34%) 6W: 29.20 (23.79-34.38) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 96%
(28%) 5W: 23.42 (18.83-27.53) 100% in, 99% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), bye 18%
(11%) 4W: 17.33 (13.80-22.27) 100% in, 63% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Twinsburg (4-0) 13%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 6%) WWWWW: 42.06 (37.47-46.24) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
( 9%) WWWWL: 35.81 (30.40-39.34) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 9%) WWWLW: 34.69 (29.92-38.75) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(12%) WLWWL: 29.79 (25.49-34.38) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 96%
( 6%) WLWLW: 29.08 (23.79-32.49) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 92%
(13%) WWWLL: 28.97 (24.20-32.38) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
(17%) WLWLL: 22.89 (18.83-25.54) 100% in, 99% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), bye 13%
(10%) WLLLL: 17.33 (13.80-20.57) 100% in, 62% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Twinsburg (4-0) 14%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 178.9, #8, D2 #5), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 4-5), 65% bye (likely needs 6-3), proj. #2 at 6-3
Week 3 (2-1, 177.7, #11, D2 #5), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 4-5), 67% bye (maybe if 5-4), proj. #2 at 6-3
Week 2 (1-1, 178.4, #7, D2 #5), 98% (bubble if 3-6), 87% home (maybe if 4-5), 57% bye (maybe if 5-4), proj. #5 at 5-4
Week 1 (1-0, 178.4, #7, D2 #2), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 4-5), 73% bye (maybe if 6-3), proj. #2 at 7-2
Week 0 (0-0, 179.4, #4, D2 #2), 97% (bubble if 3-6), 89% home (maybe if 4-5), 64% bye (maybe if 6-3), proj. #1 at 6-3
Last season 176.7