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Rankings
#42 of 106 in Division 5
#7 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #38 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #38 in D5 (+12 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 40-0 H #616 Thurgood Marshall (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 32 (93%), perf. rating 115
08/29 L 49-16 H #221 Wyoming (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 20 (16%), perf. rating 68
09/05 L 47-12 A #58 Harvest Prep (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 40 (1%), perf. rating 100
09/11 W 22-14 A #377 Hughes (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 14 (20%), perf. rating 113
09/19 H #76 Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 33 (2%)
09/26 A #472 Rock Hill (3-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/03 A #687 New Miami (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 46 (99%)
10/10 H #203 Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/17 H #586 Summit Country Day (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/24 A #210 Roger Bacon (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 22 (7%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
11.89 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#7 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
91% (bubble if 4-6), 48% home (maybe if 5-5), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.88 (10.87-24.36) 100% in, 97% home, 45% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 45%
Lose: 11.94 ( 4.92-22.08) 91% in, 47% home, 4% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), Greeneview (2-2) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 7W: 18.86 (15.90-22.08) 100% home, 76% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 76%
(17%) 6W: 15.25 (11.68-18.87) 100% in, 97% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 12%
(61%) 5W: 11.89 ( 8.68-15.62) 99% in, 45% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Greeneview (2-2) 16%
(17%) 4W: 8.99 ( 6.14-13.33) 58% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Miami East (3-1) 16%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) LWWWWW: 18.91 (16.36-22.08) 100% home, 76% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 76%
( 8%) LWWWWL: 15.35 (12.34-18.87) 100% in, 98% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 14%
( 8%) LWWLWW: 15.05 (11.68-18.87) 100% in, 95% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Greeneview (2-2) 12%
(59%) LWWLWL: 11.89 ( 8.68-15.62) 99% in, 44% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Greeneview (2-2) 16%
( 2%) LWWLLL: 9.86 ( 7.16-13.28) 76% in, 9% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Miami East (3-1) 16%
(14%) LLWLWL: 8.89 ( 6.14-12.06) 54% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Miami East (3-1) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 100.6, #365, D5 #42), 91% (bubble if 4-6), 48% home (maybe if 5-5), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 92.1, #416, D5 #55), 24% (likely needs 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 95.9, #395, D5 #51), 35% (bubble if 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 103.2, #337, D5 #39), 66% (bubble if 4-6), 40% home (maybe if 6-4), 18% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 99.1, #363, D5 #42), 61% (bubble if 5-5), 35% home (maybe if 6-4), 13% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 5-5
Last season 94.1