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Rankings
#62 of 106 in Division 5
#17 of 28 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #61 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #40 in D5 (-6 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 31-6 A #623 Buckeye Local (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 28 (90%), perf. rating 95
08/29 W 44-27 A #559 Monroe Central (1-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 4 (42%), perf. rating 98
09/05 L 40-0 H #124 Barnesville (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 33 (3%), perf. rating 75
09/12 L 34-26 A John Marshall WV (3-0) D2
09/19 H #614 Cambridge (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 29 (97%)
09/26 A #304 Indian Creek (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 21 (9%)
10/04 H #217 St Clairsville (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 26 (5%)
10/10 H #556 Harrison Central (0-4) D5 R17, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/17 A #315 Union Local (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/24 H #424 Martins Ferry (1-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 1 (47%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
7.66 Harbin points (divisor 97)
out of R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
18% (likely needs 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.74 ( 2.07-20.51) 18% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Garfield (3-1) 14%
Lose: 4.86 ( 1.93-16.26) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 7W: 14.44 (12.12-17.58) 99% in, 58% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Liberty (3-1) 17%
(13%) 6W: 11.00 ( 8.22-16.26) 81% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Garfield (3-1) 14%
(36%) 5W: 7.66 ( 4.73-12.15) 11% in, proj. out (#9-out), Garfield (3-1) 15%
(38%) 4W: 5.25 ( 3.35- 8.96) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 9%) 3W: 3.62 ( 2.07- 6.61) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWLWWW: 14.44 (12.12-17.53) 99% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Liberty (3-1) 15%
( 4%) WWLWLW: 11.46 ( 9.14-13.99) 90% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Garfield (3-1) 15%
( 6%) WLLWWW: 10.64 ( 8.22-12.60) 73% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Garfield (3-1) 15%
( 3%) WLLWWL: 8.18 ( 6.01-10.03) 15% in, proj. out (#10-out), Garfield (3-1) 18%
(30%) WLLWLW: 7.46 ( 4.73-10.40) 7% in, proj. out (#10-out), Garfield (3-1) 16%
( 3%) WLLLLW: 5.87 ( 4.22- 7.37) out
(34%) WLLWLL: 5.20 ( 3.35- 7.68) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), South Range (3-1) 33%
( 8%) WLLLLL: 3.36 ( 2.07- 5.94) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 89.1, #437, D5 #62), 18% (likely needs 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 92.3, #415, D5 #54), 51% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 92.8, #417, D5 #57), 50% (bubble if 5-5), 18% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 83.7, #484, D5 #72), 29% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 82.6, #502, D5 #73), 22% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 76.4