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Rankings
#51 of 105 in Division 5
#10 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #27 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #39 in D5 (-47 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 56-22 A #67 Tri-Valley (2-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 35 (5%), perf. rating 97
08/28 L 47-14 H #133 Barnesville (3-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 30 (7%), perf. rating 81
09/04 W 40-7 A #619 Cambridge (0-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 27 (93%), perf. rating 104
09/11 H #568 Coshocton (1-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 26 (94%)
09/18 H #335 John Glenn (1-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 8 (31%)
09/25 A #195 Philo (2-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/02 A #89 New Lexington (3-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/09 H #467 Morgan (1-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 12 (79%)
10/16 A #448 Crooksville (2-1) D6 R23, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/23 H #296 West Muskingum (2-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 13 (20%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
6.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
28% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.60 ( 1.40-23.30) 29% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Wheelersburg (1-2) 14%
Lose: 2.50 ( 0.50-14.80) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 15.80 (13.55-18.40) 100% in, 99% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), bye 18%
(11%) 6W: 12.30 ( 9.80-16.65) 99% in, 49% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Meigs (2-1) 12%
(21%) 5W: 9.35 ( 6.90-13.60) 64% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#4-out), Wheelersburg (1-2) 16%
(28%) 4W: 6.60 ( 4.30-11.55) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Wheelersburg (1-2) 22%
(23%) 3W: 4.25 ( 2.85- 8.10) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(13%) 2W: 2.35 ( 1.40- 5.90) out, proj. out
( 2%) 1W: 1.00 ( 0.50- 2.05) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWLWWW: 15.75 (13.55-17.55) 100% in, 99% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), bye 14%
( 8%) WWLLWWW: 12.20 (10.20-15.45) 99% in, 45% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Meigs (2-1) 13%
( 7%) WLLLWWW: 9.80 ( 8.25-12.45) 77% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Wheelersburg (1-2) 14%
( 9%) WWLLWWL: 8.85 ( 6.90-12.15) 50% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Wheelersburg (1-2) 17%
(16%) WLLLWWL: 6.50 ( 5.00- 9.05) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wheelersburg (1-2) 25%
(13%) WLLLWLL: 3.80 ( 2.85- 6.20) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), South Point (3-0) 100%
(11%) WLLLLLL: 2.35 ( 1.40- 4.45) out
( 2%) LLLLLLL: 1.00 ( 0.50- 2.05) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 94.0, #407, D5 #51), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 88.2, #439, D5 #63), 21% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 92.8, #416, D5 #58), 24% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 93.7, #410, D5 #55), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 96.0