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Rankings
#73 of 107 in Division 6
#22 of 27 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #58 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #90 in D6 (-620 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 21-20 A #490 Liberty Union (3-1) D6 R23, pick: W by 21 (83%), perf. rating 81
08/29 L 44-27 H #437 Bellaire (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 4 (57%), perf. rating 62
09/05 W 21-14 A #584 River (3-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 7 (65%), perf. rating 77
09/12 L 41-0 A #415 Caldwell (2-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 11 (26%), perf. rating 34
09/19 H #124 Barnesville (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 43 (1%)
09/26 A Magnolia WV (0-2) D6
10/03 H #599 Shenandoah (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 12 (78%)
10/10 A #374 Toronto (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/17 H Cameron WV (2-0) D7
10/24 H #639 Shadyside (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 20 (91%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
6.21 Harbin points (divisor 95)
out of R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.27 ( 8.20-16.49) 33% in, 9% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Lose: 6.63 ( 2.09-15.04) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
(10%) 5W: 9.69 ( 7.69-14.74) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
(36%) 4W: 7.76 ( 5.50-11.55) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(38%) 3W: 6.21 ( 3.57- 9.42) out, proj. out
(14%) 2W: 4.38 ( 2.86- 6.91) out, proj. out
( 2%) 1W: 2.82 ( 2.09- 4.03) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWWLW: 10.74 ( 8.69-13.01) 14% in, proj. out (#10-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 21%
( 7%) LWWLWW: 9.38 ( 7.69-11.69) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Centerburg (3-1) 17%
( 8%) LLWLWW: 8.45 ( 6.98-10.08) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 33%
(22%) LWWLLW: 7.45 ( 5.50- 9.55) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Ridgewood (4-0) 100%
(23%) LLWLLW: 6.26 ( 4.78- 7.78) out
( 7%) LWLLLW: 5.57 ( 3.57- 7.63) out
( 7%) LLLLLW: 4.65 ( 3.54- 6.33) out
( 2%) LLLLLL: 2.82 ( 2.09- 4.03) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 70.5, #559, D6 #73), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 79.1, #504, D6 #58), 8% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 75.5, #539, D6 #66), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 85.5, #467, D6 #50), 30% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 93.1, #424, D6 #39), 64% (bubble if 6-4), 40% home (maybe if 7-3), 16% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 101.0