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Rankings
#59 of 105 in Division 5
#11 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #61 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #57 in D5 (-190 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 63-0 A #172 Wheelersburg (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 30 (8%), perf. rating 66
08/28 L 42-0 H #261 Portsmouth West (3-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 12 (73%), perf. rating 51
09/04 L 54-8 A Greenup County KY (3-1) D3
09/11 W 34-0 H #590 Gallia Academy (0-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 110
09/18 A #485 Dawson-Bryant (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 5 (62%)
09/25 A #595 Chesapeake (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 25 (94%)
10/02 H #342 Fairland (3-1) D5 R19, pick: L by 12 (22%)
10/09 H #513 Rock Hill (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/16 A #486 South Point (3-1) D5 R19, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/23 H #47 Ironton (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 44 (1%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
7.00 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
42% (likely needs 5-5), 12% home (likely needs 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.42 ( 1.91-19.77) 60% in, 19% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Meigs (3-1) 18%
Lose: 4.83 ( 0.55-16.44) 12% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Meigs (3-1) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
(14%) 6W: 13.56 (12.24-16.44) 100% in, 83% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Meigs (3-1) 22%
(29%) 5W: 9.57 ( 8.46-13.61) 86% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Wheelersburg (2-2) 19%
(28%) 4W: 7.00 ( 5.28-10.79) 10% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Worthington Christian (3-1) 23%
(19%) 3W: 4.48 ( 3.22- 8.77) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 9%) 2W: 2.31 ( 1.76- 5.80) out, proj. out
( 2%) 1W: 0.55 ( 0.55- 2.32) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(13%) WWWWWL: 13.56 (12.24-15.12) 100% in, 83% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Meigs (3-1) 22%
(21%) WWLWWL: 9.47 ( 8.61-11.54) 84% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Wheelersburg (2-2) 20%
(10%) LWLWWL: 7.20 ( 6.40- 8.97) 10% in, proj. out (#9-out), Worthington Christian (3-1) 27%
( 4%) WWLLWL: 7.05 ( 6.19- 9.02) 11% in, proj. out (#10-out), Worthington Christian (3-1) 36%
(10%) WWLWLL: 6.14 ( 5.28- 8.42) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Fairland (3-1) 24%
( 9%) LWLWLL: 4.13 ( 3.47- 6.35) out
( 6%) LWLLLL: 2.31 ( 1.86- 3.68) out
( 2%) LLLLLL: 0.55 ( 0.55- 2.32) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 88.2, #440, D5 #59), 42% (likely needs 5-5), 12% home (likely needs 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (0-3, 78.7, #508, D5 #75), 17% (likely needs 5-5), 6% home (likely needs 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 79.9, #491, D5 #71), 24% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 106.9, #311, D5 #36), 71% (bubble if 5-5), 44% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 112.6, #263, D5 #29), 81% (bubble if 5-5), 59% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Last season 111.2