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Rankings
#69 of 106 in Division 5
#17 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #68 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #73 in D5 (-294 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 42-0 H #164 Unioto (4-0) D4 R15, pick: W by 7 (63%), perf. rating 65
08/29 W 13-12 A #477 Portsmouth West (1-3) D6 R24, pick: L by 14 (24%), perf. rating 86
09/05 W 24-9 H Greenup County KY (1-3) D3
09/12 L 28-14 A #436 Gallia Academy (2-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 13 (78%), perf. rating 71
09/19 H #402 Dawson-Bryant (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 10 (27%)
09/26 H #631 Chesapeake (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/03 A #484 Fairland (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/10 A #472 Rock Hill (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 2 (44%)
10/17 H #589 South Point (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/24 A #14 Ironton (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 49 (1%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
9.07 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
26% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.50 ( 5.18-20.57) 66% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 17%
Lose: 8.16 ( 2.41-17.59) 11% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 21%
Based on eventual number of wins
(11%) 7W: 14.36 (11.48-19.87) 98% in, 25% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 20%
(24%) 6W: 11.44 ( 8.91-15.38) 50% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 20%
(30%) 5W: 9.07 ( 6.29-13.16) 7% in, proj. out (#9-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 27%
(26%) 4W: 6.65 ( 4.48-11.40) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 8%) 3W: 5.19 ( 2.81- 9.03) out, proj. out
( 1%) 2W: 4.38 ( 2.41- 6.05) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(11%) WWWWWL: 14.16 (11.48-17.65) 98% in, 23% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 20%
(15%) LWWWWL: 11.39 ( 8.91-15.12) 42% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 21%
( 5%) WWWLWL: 11.03 ( 8.96-13.81) 56% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 24%
(11%) LWLWWL: 9.52 ( 7.10-12.65) 7% in, proj. out (#10-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 29%
(12%) LWWLWL: 8.41 ( 6.29-11.34) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 23%
(20%) LWLLWL: 6.55 ( 4.48- 9.48) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 100%
( 6%) LWLLLL: 4.83 ( 2.81- 7.56) out
( 1%) LLLLLL: 4.38 ( 2.41- 6.05) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 83.0, #468, D5 #69), 26% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 92.4, #414, D5 #53), 68% (bubble if 6-4), 39% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 95.6, #401, D5 #53), 47% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 91.3, #432, D5 #59), 21% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 114.7, #245, D5 #26), 78% (bubble if 5-5), 57% home (maybe if 7-3), 28% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 119.0