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Rankings
#6 of 106 in Division 5
#3 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #63 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #2 in D5 (+532 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 43-8 A #427 KIPP Columbus (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 32 (93%), perf. rating 145
08/29 W 10-7 H #76 Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 3 (44%), perf. rating 148
09/05 W 17-7 A #142 Jackson (3-1) D3 R12, pick: W by 5 (61%), perf. rating 150
09/12 W 35-0 H #544 Northwest (McDermott) (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 47 (99%), perf. rating 123
09/19 A #376 Valley (4-0) D5 R19, pick: W by 32 (98%)
09/26 H #14 Ironton (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 26 (5%)
10/03 A #676 Oak Hill (0-4) D5 R19, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/10 H #511 Waverly (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 44 (99%)
10/17 A #598 Minford (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/24 H #477 Portsmouth West (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 42 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
22.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#3 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 94% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 22.95 (17.80-30.30) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 96%
Lose: 19.10 (16.05-24.85) 100% in, 99% home, 28% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 28%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 10W: 27.90 (25.35-30.30) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(90%) 9W: 22.95 (19.85-28.55) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 97%
( 6%) 8W: 20.45 (16.05-24.95) 100% home, 57% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 57%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWWWW: 27.90 (25.35-30.30) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(89%) WLWWWW: 22.95 (19.85-25.95) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 97%
( 1%) WLWLWW: 20.95 (19.30-23.65) 100% home, 62% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 62%
( 2%) LLWWWW: 19.15 (16.05-21.10) 100% home, 27% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 27%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 142.0, #94, D5 #6), appears locked in and likely home, 94% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 141.5, #94, D5 #7), appears locked in and likely home, 89% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 138.9, #104, D5 #7), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 7-3), 56% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 137.3, #121, D5 #10), 90% (bubble if 6-4), 73% home (maybe if 7-3), 44% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 134.5, #125, D5 #8), 86% (bubble if 6-4), 61% home (maybe if 7-3), 30% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 7-3
Last season 133.6