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Rankings
#10 of 105 in Division 5
#2 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #47 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #40 in D5 (-50 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 63-0 H #508 Portsmouth (0-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 30 (92%), perf. rating 139
08/28 L 26-18 A #129 Chillicothe (3-0) D3 R12, pick: W by 26 (90%), perf. rating 124
09/04 L 14-3 H #140 Jackson (2-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 7 (65%), perf. rating 113
09/11 A #646 Northwest (McDermott) (0-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 49 (99%)
09/18 H #389 Valley (3-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 29 (97%)
09/25 A #39 Steubenville (3-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 28 (4%)
10/02 H #692 Oak Hill (0-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/09 A #405 Waverly (1-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/16 H #598 Minford (1-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 46 (99%)
10/23 A #245 Portsmouth West (3-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 10 (74%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
14.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#6 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
95% (bubble if 5-5), 73% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.25 ( 3.30-20.80) 95% in, 73% home, 9% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), Meigs (2-1) 10%
Lose: 11.40 ( 2.25-17.45) 80% in, 48% home, 2% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Ridgewood (2-1) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 8W: 17.90 (15.40-20.80) 100% in, 99% home, 57% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#10), bye 57%
(60%) 7W: 14.80 (11.75-19.30) 100% in, 98% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#12), Piketon (2-1) 11%
(29%) 6W: 10.90 ( 8.10-15.85) 96% in, 33% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Ridgewood (2-1) 12%
( 6%) 5W: 7.95 ( 5.55-12.55) 47% in, 3% home, proj. out (#6-out), Meigs (2-1) 14%
( 1%) 4W: 5.52 ( 3.30- 8.95) 8% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWWWWW: 17.90 (15.40-20.80) 100% in, 99% home, 57% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#10), bye 57%
(59%) WWLWWWW: 14.80 (12.55-17.60) 100% in, 98% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#12), Piketon (2-1) 11%
( 1%) WWWWWWL: 13.70 (11.75-16.40) 100% in, 92% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Grove City Christian (0-3) 14%
( 3%) WWLWLWW: 12.07 ( 9.80-14.00) 99% in, 57% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Ridgewood (2-1) 14%
( 2%) WLLWWWW: 10.95 ( 8.95-13.40) 98% in, 34% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Ridgewood (2-1) 13%
(22%) WWLWWWL: 10.65 ( 8.75-13.30) 96% in, 27% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Meigs (2-1) 12%
( 3%) WWLWLWL: 7.95 ( 6.10-10.20) 45% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Ridgewood (2-1) 17%
( 2%) WLLWWWL: 7.35 ( 5.55- 9.65) 22% in, proj. out (#10-out), Africentric Early Coll. (0-3) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 128.2, #156, D5 #10), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 73% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 134.7, #122, D5 #8), 97% (bubble if 5-5), 85% home (maybe if 6-4), 39% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 152.6, #49, D5 #4), likely in and likely home, 86% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 146.9, #67, D5 #6), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 6-4), 77% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 152.0