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Rankings
#96 of 106 in Division 5
#27 of 28 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #67 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #84 in D5 (-478 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 31-6 H #437 Bellaire (2-2) D5 R17, pick: L by 28 (10%), perf. rating 50
08/29 L 21-12 A #584 River (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 23 (12%), perf. rating 53
09/05 W 20-14 H #639 Shadyside (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 60
09/12 L 56-0 A #124 Barnesville (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 49 (1%), perf. rating 76
09/19 H Carrick PA (1-3) D4
09/26 H Oak Glen WV (3-0) D5
10/03 A #424 Martins Ferry (1-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/10 H #315 Union Local (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/17 A #374 Toronto (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/24 H #556 Harrison Central (0-4) D5 R17, pick: L by 12 (21%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
3.96 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
2% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.57 ( 2.07-14.59) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Girard (4-0) 15%
Lose: 2.19 ( 1.06-10.68) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 4W: 8.43 ( 4.10-12.21) 21% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(21%) 3W: 6.20 ( 2.88-10.23) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(46%) 2W: 3.96 ( 1.51- 7.08) out, proj. out
(28%) 1W: 1.47 ( 1.06- 3.36) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWLLLW: 8.59 ( 5.68-11.14) 22% in, proj. out (#10-out), Garfield (3-1) 16%
( 8%) WWLLLL: 7.27 ( 4.87-10.23) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), Poland Seminary (3-1) 21%
( 3%) LWLLLW: 6.25 ( 4.26- 8.65) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Pymatuning Valley (3-1) 100%
( 8%) LWLLLL: 5.09 ( 3.35- 7.08) out
( 8%) WLLLLW: 5.02 ( 2.88- 8.09) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Garfield (3-1) 50%
(29%) WLLLLL: 3.96 ( 2.07- 6.51) out
( 8%) LLLLLW: 2.89 ( 1.51- 4.93) out
(28%) LLLLLL: 1.47 ( 1.06- 3.36) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 56.2, #623, D5 #96), 2% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 52.6, #633, D5 #96), 2% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 51.9, #637, D5 #100), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 47.0, #648, D5 #101), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 48.2, #650, D5 #100), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Last season 50.0