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Rankings
#28 of 105 in Division 4
#8 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #47 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #30 in D4 (+20 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 43-10 A #74 Ashland (4-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 23 (15%), perf. rating 98
08/29 W 27-0 A #407 University School (2-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 8 (34%), perf. rating 136
09/05 W 42-6 H #496 Firelands (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 31 (96%), perf. rating 131
09/12 W 26-0 A #493 Normandy (1-3) D1 R1, pick: W by 32 (97%), perf. rating 121
09/19 H #89 Buckeye (4-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 20 (11%)
09/26 A #471 Westlake (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/03 H #317 Valley Forge (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/09 H #337 North Olmsted (0-4) D2 R6, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/17 A #358 Lakewood (3-1) D2 R6, pick: W by 17 (87%)
10/24 H #108 Rocky River (3-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 16 (15%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
17.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
97% (bubble if 4-6), 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 36% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 23.15 (11.90-30.25) 100% in, 99% home, 94% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#11), bye 94%
Lose: 17.00 ( 5.00-25.25) 97% in, 77% home, 29% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 30%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 9W: 28.00 (26.10-30.25) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(18%) 8W: 22.45 (19.85-28.05) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(45%) 7W: 17.50 (15.05-23.35) 100% in, 99% home, 32% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 32%
(23%) 6W: 14.00 (11.20-18.70) 99% in, 53% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Cloverleaf (3-1) 14%
( 8%) 5W: 11.05 ( 8.55-15.00) 86% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Perkins (1-3) 18%
( 2%) 4W: 8.45 ( 6.25-11.50) 43% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWW: 28.00 (26.10-30.25) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#2), bye 100%
( 5%) WWWWWL: 22.80 (20.60-25.15) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#5), bye 99%
(13%) LWWWWW: 22.35 (19.85-25.25) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(40%) LWWWWL: 17.45 (15.05-20.20) 100% in, 99% home, 28% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 28%
( 6%) LWWLWL: 14.68 (12.35-17.90) 100% in, 68% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#12), Cloverleaf (3-1) 13%
( 6%) LWLWWL: 13.95 (11.75-17.10) 99% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Cloverleaf (3-1) 16%
( 9%) LWWWLL: 13.50 (11.20-16.85) 99% in, 41% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Cloverleaf (3-1) 14%
( 1%) LWLLLL: 8.40 ( 6.25-10.75) 39% in, proj. out (#10-out), Napoleon (2-2) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 121.2, #205, D4 #28), 97% (bubble if 4-6), 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 36% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 120.8, #213, D4 #27), 94% (bubble if 4-6), 74% home (maybe if 6-4), 29% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 121.0, #215, D4 #27), 90% (bubble if 4-6), 70% home (maybe if 6-4), 34% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 105.3, #319, D4 #47), 46% (bubble if 5-5), 27% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 111.1, #268, D4 #40), 64% (bubble if 4-6), 48% home (maybe if 6-4), 26% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 5-5
Last season 107.7