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Rankings
#53 of 101 in Division 4
#13 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #85 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #44 in D4 (-66 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 21-7 H #402 Rhodes (1-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 8 (36%), perf. rating 114
08/28 L 41-7 A #223 Vermilion (2-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 13 (26%), perf. rating 72
09/04 W 30-0 H #476 Bay (0-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 7 (35%), perf. rating 126
09/11 A #551 Brookside (0-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 26 (94%)
09/25 H #582 Clearview (0-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/02 A #433 Black River (0-3) D6 R21, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/09 A #650 Wellington (0-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/16 H #235 Keystone (3-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 14 (18%)
10/23 A #190 Columbia (3-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 23 (7%)
Regular season projections
6-3 record
12.27 Harbin points (divisor 89)
#7 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
97% (bubble if 4-5), 54% home (maybe if 6-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.38 ( 6.10-24.95) 98% in, 56% home, 4% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Buckeye (0-3) 13%
Lose: 9.63 ( 4.87-20.91) 84% in, 22% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Buckeye (0-3) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 8W: 21.47 (18.60-24.95) 100% home, 58% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 58%
(22%) 7W: 16.81 (13.27-22.82) 100% in, 98% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Upper Sandusky (2-1) 15%
(47%) 6W: 12.27 ( 8.78-18.56) 99% in, 53% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Buckeye (0-3) 14%
(23%) 5W: 9.91 ( 6.15-15.48) 94% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Buckeye (0-3) 15%
( 4%) 4W: 8.35 ( 5.65-11.72) 75% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Bellevue (2-1) 14%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WWWWWW: 21.47 (18.60-24.95) 100% home, 58% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 58%
(15%) WWWWWL: 16.87 (13.33-20.24) 100% in, 98% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Upper Sandusky (2-1) 14%
( 6%) WWWWLW: 16.59 (13.27-19.79) 100% in, 98% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Upper Sandusky (2-1) 16%
( 3%) WWLWWL: 14.23 (11.59-17.94) 100% in, 84% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Benjamin Logan (1-2) 13%
(41%) WWWWLL: 12.27 ( 8.78-15.92) 99% in, 49% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Buckeye (0-3) 14%
( 2%) LWWWLL: 10.25 ( 8.06-13.79) 97% in, 22% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Buckeye (0-3) 15%
(19%) WWLWLL: 9.86 ( 6.60-14.18) 94% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Buckeye (0-3) 15%
( 2%) LWLWLL: 8.29 ( 5.65-11.72) 71% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Bellevue (2-1) 15%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 102.0, #357, D4 #53), 97% (bubble if 4-5), 54% home (maybe if 6-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #7 at 6-3
Week 2 (1-1, 89.0, #434, D4 #68), 65% (bubble if 4-5), 22% home (maybe if 6-3), proj. #10 at 5-4
Week 1 (1-0, 93.5, #411, D4 #64), 60% (bubble if 4-5), 30% home (maybe if 6-3), 7% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #10 at 5-4
Week 0 (0-0, 83.8, #480, D4 #75), 40% (bubble if 4-5), 19% home (maybe if 6-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. out at 4-5
Last season 80.7