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Rankings
#83 of 100 in Division 2
#20 of 25 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #84 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #78 in D2 (-594 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 34-14 A #228 Midview (3-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 32 (7%), perf. rating 92
08/28 W 57-18 H #582 Clearview (0-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 14 (76%), perf. rating 119
09/04 L 24-8 H #468 Warrensville Heights (2-1) D4 R13, pick: W by 30 (95%), perf. rating 58
09/11 A #580 Normandy (0-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 20 (88%)
09/18 H #349 North Olmsted (0-3) D2 R6, pick: L by 15 (17%)
09/25 A #363 Lakewood (3-0) D2 R6, pick: L by 17 (14%)
10/02 H #459 Valley Forge (0-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/08 A #83 Rocky River (3-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 40 (1%)
10/16 A #476 Bay (0-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/23 H #253 Buckeye (0-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 26 (4%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
10% (likely needs 6-4), 3% home (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.30 ( 1.10-21.10) 11% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Amherst Steele (3-0) 13%
Lose: 1.70 ( 0.50-14.30) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 14.90 (14.10-18.90) 100% in, 92% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Rhodes (1-2) 16%
( 6%) 6W: 11.60 ( 8.90-16.30) 91% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Lakewood (3-0) 13%
(14%) 5W: 8.40 ( 6.10-13.90) 20% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Clay (3-0) 19%
(24%) 4W: 5.00 ( 3.70-11.00) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(27%) 3W: 3.20 ( 2.10- 8.70) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(22%) 2W: 1.90 ( 1.00- 7.10) out, proj. out
( 6%) 1W: 0.90 ( 0.50- 2.65) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWLWW: 14.80 (14.10-17.00) 100% in, 93% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Rhodes (1-2) 16%
( 5%) WLWWLWL: 8.90 ( 7.90-11.05) 23% in, proj. out (#9-out), Clay (3-0) 23%
( 4%) WWLWLWL: 7.20 ( 6.10- 9.55) 6% in, proj. out (#10-out), Amherst Steele (3-0) 21%
(14%) WLLWLWL: 4.70 ( 3.80- 7.30) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Lakewood (3-0) 100%
(11%) WLLWLLL: 3.20 ( 2.30- 6.15) out
( 9%) WLLLLWL: 3.00 ( 2.10- 6.00) out
(19%) WLLLLLL: 1.50 ( 1.10- 4.80) out
( 6%) LLLLLLL: 0.90 ( 0.50- 2.65) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 85.4, #461, D2 #83), 10% (likely needs 6-4), 3% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 102.1, #347, D2 #67), 49% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 93.2, #412, D2 #76), 23% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 90.4, #439, D2 #81), 26% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 91.3