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Rankings
#52 of 105 in Division 4
#15 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #78 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #36 in D4 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 41-0 H #89 Buckeye (4-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 33 (7%), perf. rating 80
08/29 W 22-6 H #418 Keystone (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 20 (16%), perf. rating 115
09/05 W 42-18 H #444 Carrollton (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 14 (78%), perf. rating 120
09/12 W 42-7 H #654 Springfield (Akron) (1-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 44 (99%), perf. rating 94
09/19 A #593 Coventry (1-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 32 (98%)
09/26 A #485 Ravenna (1-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 20 (90%)
10/03 H #160 Norton (3-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/10 H #465 Field (0-4) D4 R13, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/17 A #370 Woodridge (2-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/24 A #175 Streetsboro (3-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 23 (7%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
15.22 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#8 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
94% (bubble if 4-6), 45% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.11 ( 5.59-25.31) 95% in, 45% home, 9% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 13%
Lose: 10.58 ( 4.18-18.65) 70% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), Perkins (1-3) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 9W: 23.79 (21.77-25.31) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(10%) 8W: 19.25 (16.68-22.18) 100% home, 61% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 61%
(40%) 7W: 15.22 (12.59-19.16) 99% in, 71% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Benjamin Logan (2-2) 14%
(37%) 6W: 12.19 ( 9.57-17.14) 95% in, 12% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 16%
(10%) 5W: 10.08 ( 7.10-12.60) 73% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Perkins (1-3) 18%
( 2%) 4W: 8.16 ( 5.59-10.08) 36% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWW: 23.79 (21.77-25.31) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 5%) WWLWWW: 19.25 (16.78-21.27) 100% home, 60% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 60%
( 5%) WWWWWL: 19.25 (16.68-21.47) 100% home, 62% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 62%
(35%) WWLWWL: 15.17 (12.59-17.54) 99% in, 69% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 14%
(30%) WWLWLL: 12.09 ( 9.57-14.62) 95% in, 10% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 16%
( 4%) WWLLLL: 10.18 ( 7.60-12.60) 77% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Perkins (1-3) 19%
( 4%) WLLWLL: 9.67 ( 7.10-12.60) 67% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Perkins (1-3) 18%
( 1%) WLLLLL: 8.16 ( 5.59-10.08) 36% in, proj. out (#10-out), Perkins (1-3) 20%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 103.8, #340, D4 #52), 94% (bubble if 4-6), 45% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 105.0, #339, D4 #53), 91% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 102.5, #342, D4 #51), 79% (bubble if 5-5), 39% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 88.0, #453, D4 #78), 26% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 92.3, #430, D4 #74), 36% (bubble if 5-5), 19% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 92.0