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Rankings
#75 of 104 in Division 3
#20 of 26 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #39 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #45 in D3 (-37 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 42-0 H #26 Perrysburg (3-0) D1 R2, pick: L by 40 (3%), perf. rating 101
08/28 W 28-22 A #446 Bryan (0-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 6 (62%), perf. rating 99
09/04 L 62-0 A #90 Clay (3-0) D2 R6, pick: L by 36 (2%), perf. rating 80
09/11 H #562 Sylvania Northview (0-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 23 (91%)
09/18 H #159 Anthony Wayne (1-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 29 (3%)
09/25 A #300 Springfield (Holland) (2-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/02 A #254 Liberty-Benton (1-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/09 A #298 Napoleon (0-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/16 H #339 Sylvania Southview (1-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/23 H #179 Fremont Ross (1-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 27 (4%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.10 ( 1.10-17.70) 3% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Buchtel (1-2) 12%
Lose: 1.75 ( 0.50-12.95) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 13.60 (11.85-15.65) 95% in, 30% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Buchtel (1-2) 13%
( 2%) 6W: 10.80 ( 8.60-14.05) 57% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Buchtel (1-2) 11%
( 6%) 5W: 8.10 ( 5.90-11.05) 6% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(13%) 4W: 5.85 ( 3.75- 9.85) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(27%) 3W: 3.65 ( 2.15- 7.60) out, proj. out
(44%) 2W: 1.95 ( 1.10- 5.80) out, proj. out
( 7%) 1W: 1.35 ( 0.50- 2.70) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLWWWWL: 10.70 ( 9.35-13.05) 52% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Cloverleaf (2-1) 11%
( 2%) WLWLLWL: 6.00 ( 4.65- 8.30) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Wapakoneta (1-2) 100%
( 3%) WLLLWWL: 5.35 ( 3.80- 7.70) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Buchtel (1-2) 100%
( 3%) WLWLLLL: 4.20 ( 2.85- 6.60) out
(13%) WLLLLWL: 3.65 ( 2.30- 6.50) out
( 5%) WLLLWLL: 3.55 ( 2.20- 6.40) out
(42%) WLLLLLL: 1.95 ( 1.10- 3.85) out
( 7%) LLLLLLL: 1.35 ( 0.50- 2.70) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 92.0, #417, D3 #75), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (1-1, 89.3, #433, D3 #75), 6% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 85.3, #460, D3 #80), 9% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 86.4, #459, D3 #80), 9% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 81.1