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Rankings
#25 of 105 in Division 4
#7 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #38 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #37 in D4 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 20-19 A #283 Defiance (2-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 4 (43%), perf. rating 112
08/29 W 21-14 H #384 Maumee (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 32 (95%), perf. rating 106
09/05 L 7-0 H #86 Anthony Wayne (3-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 20 (13%), perf. rating 131
09/12 W 23-15 A #199 Clay (2-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 13 (22%), perf. rating 137
09/19 A #530 Sylvania Northview (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 35 (99%)
09/26 H #307 Sylvania Southview (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 17 (86%)
10/03 H #263 Springfield (Holland) (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 11 (76%)
10/10 A #501 Bowling Green (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/17 A #157 Fremont Ross (2-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/24 H #576 Waite (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 41 (99%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
16.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#6 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 77% home (maybe if 6-4), 28% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.50 ( 7.85-24.25) 99% in, 77% home, 28% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 29%
Lose: 13.50 ( 7.30-20.35) 91% in, 38% home, 12% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(25%) 8W: 20.55 (17.70-24.25) 100% home, 85% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 85%
(46%) 7W: 16.50 (13.10-21.25) 100% in, 94% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 15%
(23%) 6W: 13.50 (10.25-18.60) 99% in, 38% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 13%
( 6%) 5W: 10.80 ( 8.60-14.65) 87% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Perkins (1-3) 19%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(25%) WWWWWW: 20.55 (17.70-24.25) 100% home, 85% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 85%
( 2%) WLWWWW: 17.60 (15.40-21.25) 100% in, 99% home, 35% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 35%
( 4%) WWLWWW: 16.90 (14.20-19.85) 100% in, 97% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 18%
(40%) WWWWLW: 16.50 (13.10-20.20) 100% in, 94% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 13%
( 6%) WLWWLW: 14.00 (11.85-17.65) 99% in, 49% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Cloverleaf (3-1) 15%
(15%) WWLWLW: 13.05 (10.25-17.45) 99% in, 29% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 14%
( 4%) WLLWLW: 10.70 ( 8.60-14.65) 86% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 19%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 123.5, #196, D4 #25), likely in, 77% home (maybe if 6-4), 28% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 3 (1-2, 120.4, #219, D4 #31), 69% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 119.7, #223, D4 #28), 60% (bubble if 5-5), 29% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 127.6, #164, D4 #19), 78% (bubble if 5-5), 54% home (maybe if 6-4), 20% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 126.6, #169, D4 #16), 79% (bubble if 5-5), 60% home (maybe if 6-4), 29% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 127.9