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Rankings
#38 of 101 in Division 4
#10 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #20 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #83 in D4 (-640 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 9-8 H #257 Defiance (1-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 11 (69%), perf. rating 111
08/28 L 24-21 A #307 Maumee (1-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 19 (83%), perf. rating 105
09/04 A #203 Anthony Wayne (0-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 11 (27%)
09/11 H #118 Clay (2-0) D2 R6, pick: L by 20 (12%)
09/18 H #563 Sylvania Northview (0-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 35 (99%)
09/25 A #339 Sylvania Southview (1-1) D2 R6, pick: W by 8 (69%)
10/02 A #322 Springfield (Holland) (2-0) D2 R6, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/09 H #432 Bowling Green (1-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/16 H #159 Fremont Ross (1-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/23 A #255 Liberty-Benton (0-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 3 (42%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
2.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
57% (bubble if 4-6), 26% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.29 ( 0.82- 6.34) 88% in, 58% home, 10% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), bye 12%
Lose: 2.70 ( 0.00- 5.56) 45% in, 14% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Buckeye (0-2) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 8W: 6.10 ( 6.02- 6.34) 100% home, 71% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 71%
( 8%) 7W: 5.21 ( 5.08- 5.56) 100% in, 99% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 14%
(15%) 6W: 4.38 ( 4.18- 4.80) 100% in, 75% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Otsego (2-0) 13%
(20%) 5W: 3.55 ( 3.33- 3.92) 97% in, 20% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Buckeye (0-2) 13%
(20%) 4W: 2.80 ( 2.57- 3.15) 58% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Clear Fork (2-0) 16%
(18%) 3W: 2.03 ( 1.80- 2.38) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(12%) 2W: 1.26 ( 1.10- 1.64) out, proj. out
( 5%) 1W: 0.60 ( 0.60- 0.84) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWWWW: 6.10 ( 6.02- 6.34) 100% home, 71% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 71%
( 4%) WLWWWWWW: 5.15 ( 5.08- 5.40) 100% in, 99% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 15%
( 5%) LLWWWWWW: 4.40 ( 4.33- 4.62) 100% in, 70% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Van Wert (2-0) 12%
( 7%) LLWWWWLW: 3.50 ( 3.44- 3.75) 97% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Buckeye (0-2) 13%
( 7%) LLWWWWLL: 2.81 ( 2.80- 2.98) 64% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Bellevue (2-0) 18%
( 7%) LLWWLWLL: 1.98 ( 1.97- 2.21) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out), Benjamin Logan (1-1) 27%
( 8%) LLWLLWLL: 1.26 ( 1.25- 1.49) out
( 4%) LLWLLLLL: 0.60 ( 0.60- 0.70) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 113.3, #269, D4 #38), 48% (bubble if 4-6), 20% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 120.3, #214, D4 #27), 72% (bubble if 5-5), 44% home (maybe if 6-4), 13% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 124.5, #179, D4 #18), 80% (bubble if 4-6), 62% home (maybe if 6-4), 27% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 124.1