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Rankings
#48 of 100 in Division 2
#11 of 25 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #56 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #57 in D2 (-284 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 22-21 A #229 Tiffin Columbian (2-1) D3 R10, later lost by forfeit
08/28 W 51-6 H #420 Sandusky (0-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 23 (88%), perf. rating 152
09/04 L 40-7 H #26 Perrysburg (3-0) D1 R2, pick: L by 27 (7%), perf. rating 114
09/11 A #49 Whitmer (2-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 27 (5%)
09/18 A #70 Findlay (3-0) D2 R6, pick: L by 21 (9%)
09/25 H #254 Liberty-Benton (1-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 12 (78%)
10/02 H #339 Sylvania Southview (1-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/09 H #300 Springfield (Holland) (2-1) D2 R6, pick: W by 18 (88%)
10/16 A #298 Napoleon (0-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/23 A #417 Bowling Green (1-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 27 (96%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
10.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
74% (likely needs 5-5), 38% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.90 ( 6.50-26.15) 99% in, 89% home, 21% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), bye 21%
Lose: 11.80 ( 0.60-22.45) 72% in, 35% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Lakewood (3-0) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 22.65 (20.30-26.15) 100% home, 72% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 72%
( 9%) 7W: 17.95 (15.00-22.45) 100% in, 99% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Rhodes (1-2) 14%
(39%) 6W: 13.65 (11.20-18.90) 99% in, 66% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Rhodes (1-2) 14%
(27%) 5W: 10.55 ( 8.10-14.90) 81% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Lakewood (3-0) 16%
(14%) 4W: 7.70 ( 5.05-12.35) 18% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Lakewood (3-0) 21%
( 6%) 3W: 5.10 ( 3.30- 9.20) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 3%) 2W: 2.85 ( 1.10- 5.55) out, proj. out
( 1%) 1W: 1.15 ( 0.60- 2.65) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWWW: 22.65 (20.30-26.15) 100% home, 72% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 72%
( 7%) LWWWWWW: 17.90 (15.60-22.45) 100% in, 99% home, 14% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), Rhodes (1-2) 14%
(36%) LLWWWWW: 13.60 (11.20-17.45) 99% in, 65% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Rhodes (1-2) 14%
( 8%) LLWWWLW: 10.72 ( 8.80-14.80) 87% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Lakewood (3-0) 17%
( 8%) LLLWWWW: 10.50 ( 8.35-13.30) 87% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Lakewood (3-0) 18%
( 5%) LLWWLWW: 9.95 ( 8.10-13.55) 55% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Clay (3-0) 15%
( 4%) LLLWWLW: 7.93 ( 6.30-11.40) 28% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Lakewood (3-0) 21%
( 1%) LLLLLLL: 1.15 ( 0.60- 2.65) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 125.0, #179, D2 #48), 74% (likely needs 5-5), 38% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 128.6, #159, D2 #45), 75% (bubble if 5-5), 42% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 119.6, #219, D2 #52), 71% (bubble if 5-5), 40% home (maybe if 6-4), 12% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 119.0, #210, D2 #52), 50% (bubble if 5-5), 28% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 117.5