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Rankings
#36 of 100 in Division 2
#8 of 26 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #53 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #39 in D2 (-32 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 22-21 A #199 Tiffin Columbian (4-2) D3 R10, later lost by forfeit
08/28 W 51-6 H #411 Sandusky (0-6) D2 R6, pick: W by 23 (88%), perf. rating 153
09/04 L 40-7 H #26 Perrysburg (6-0) D1 R2, pick: L by 27 (7%), perf. rating 111
09/11 L 49-2 A #40 Whitmer (5-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 27 (5%), perf. rating 97
09/18 W 37-28 A #98 Findlay (4-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 24 (7%), perf. rating 154
09/25 W 42-14 H #309 Liberty-Benton (1-5) D5 R18, pick: W by 23 (93%), perf. rating 147
10/02 H #326 Sylvania Southview (2-4) D2 R6, pick: W by 26 (95%)
10/09 H #295 Springfield (Holland) (3-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/16 A #364 Napoleon (1-5) D4 R14, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/23 A #420 Bowling Green (2-4) D3 R10, pick: W by 32 (98%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
17.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 95% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.40 (10.25-20.05) 99% in, 97% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#3-out), Rhodes (3-3) 19%
Lose: 14.20 ( 6.35-17.00) 95% in, 69% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Waite (4-2) 21%
Based on eventual number of wins
(84%) 7W: 17.50 (15.55-20.05) 100% in, 99% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Rhodes (3-3) 21%
(14%) 6W: 14.65 (12.30-17.35) 99% in, 79% home, proj. #7 (#5-out), Waite (4-2) 22%
( 2%) 5W: 12.15 ( 9.65-15.00) 94% in, 20% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Findlay (4-2) 19%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(84%) WWWW: 17.50 (15.55-20.05) 100% in, 99% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Rhodes (3-3) 21%
( 4%) WWLW: 15.45 (13.55-17.35) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #7 (#5-#9), Waite (4-2) 20%
( 2%) WWWL: 15.28 (13.45-17.10) 100% in, 95% home, proj. #7 (#5-#9), Waite (4-2) 21%
( 4%) LWWW: 14.60 (12.85-17.00) 100% in, 86% home, proj. #7 (#5-#12), Waite (4-2) 22%
( 5%) WLWW: 13.85 (12.30-16.60) 99% in, 53% home, proj. #8 (#6-out), Waite (4-2) 25%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (3-3, 132.9, #133, D2 #36), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye, proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 5 (2-3, 130.4, #151, D2 #38), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye, proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 4 (1-3, 121.0, #210, D2 #50), 63% (bubble if 5-5), 31% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 125.0, #179, D2 #48), 74% (likely needs 5-5), 38% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 128.6, #159, D2 #45), 75% (bubble if 5-5), 42% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 119.6, #219, D2 #52), 71% (bubble if 5-5), 40% home (maybe if 6-4), 12% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 119.0, #210, D2 #52), 50% (bubble if 5-5), 28% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 117.5