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Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
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Team history page
Rankings
#58 of 102 in Division 4
#16 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #30 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #73 in D4 (-378 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 41-6 A #162 Van Wert (4-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 33 (7%), perf. rating 79
08/28 L 28-22 H #420 Bowling Green (2-4) D3 R10, pick: L by 6 (38%), perf. rating 80
09/04 L 32-29 H #269 Fairview (Sherwood) (5-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 32 (4%), perf. rating 106
09/11 L 22-16 H #206 Patrick Henry (4-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 31 (3%), perf. rating 111
09/18 L 61-6 H #25 Liberty Center (6-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 43 (1%), perf. rating 99
09/25 W 27-5 A #576 Evergreen (0-6) D6 R22, pick: W by 24 (94%), perf. rating 101
10/02 A #589 Swanton (1-5) D5 R18, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/09 H #399 Wauseon (1-5) D4 R14, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/16 A #48 Archbold (6-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 42 (1%)
10/23 A #143 Delta (5-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 31 (2%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.95 ( 1.60-10.50) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Lose: 0.85 ( 0.40- 6.05) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 4W: 6.25 ( 5.80- 8.75) 5% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(54%) 3W: 3.00 ( 2.95- 6.35) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(42%) 2W: 1.65 ( 1.30- 5.10) out, proj. out
( 2%) 1W: 0.80 ( 0.40- 1.25) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWLW: 6.25 ( 5.80- 6.70) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out), Otsego (4-2) 100%
(53%) WWLL: 3.00 ( 2.95- 3.85) out
( 2%) LWLL: 1.75 ( 1.30- 2.60) out
(40%) WLLL: 1.65 ( 1.60- 2.55) out
( 2%) LLLL: 0.80 ( 0.40- 1.25) out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (1-5, 94.4, #395, D4 #58), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 5 (0-5, 94.8, #402, D4 #65), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 4 (0-4, 93.6, #413, D4 #66), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 88.2, #446, D4 #73), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 78.2, #507, D4 #79), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 77.2, #508, D4 #80), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 79.7, #498, D4 #78), 8% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 82.4