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Rankings
#48 of 104 in Division 2
#13 of 27 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #49 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #61 in D2 (-260 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 28-7 A #60 Wapakoneta (4-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 25 (13%), perf. rating 120
08/29 W 14-0 H #307 Sylvania Southview (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 13 (74%), perf. rating 127
09/05 W 48-3 A #501 Bowling Green (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 33 (97%), perf. rating 144
09/12 L 23-15 H #196 Napoleon (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 13 (78%), perf. rating 110
09/19 H #555 Bowsher (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 39 (99%)
09/26 A #113 Findlay (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 18 (13%)
10/03 A #86 Anthony Wayne (3-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 22 (8%)
10/10 H #44 Perrysburg (3-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 26 (4%)
10/17 H #26 Whitmer (3-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/24 A #530 Sylvania Northview (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 35 (99%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
7.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
13% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.15 ( 4.60-26.80) 13% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Fremont Ross (2-2) 18%
Lose: 5.80 ( 4.10-10.10) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 6W: 15.80 (12.95-19.55) 99% in, 39% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), St Francis (Toledo) (3-1) 16%
(20%) 5W: 11.60 ( 8.30-15.85) 40% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Fremont Ross (2-2) 23%
(72%) 4W: 7.60 ( 5.25-13.55) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 2%) 3W: 6.35 ( 4.10- 9.35) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWLLW: 15.25 (12.95-17.65) 99% in, 35% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 14%
( 2%) WLLLWW: 13.05 ( 9.50-15.85) 71% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 23%
( 3%) WLLWLW: 12.30 ( 9.40-15.25) 55% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 21%
( 6%) WLWLLW: 11.55 ( 9.25-14.55) 38% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 22%
(10%) WWLLLW: 11.20 ( 8.30-14.85) 31% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Fremont Ross (2-2) 27%
(72%) WLLLLW: 7.60 ( 5.25-11.15) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 27%
( 1%) WLLLLL: 6.35 ( 4.60- 8.65) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 123.2, #199, D2 #48), 13% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 131.5, #148, D2 #39), 56% (bubble if 5-5), 27% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 129.2, #160, D2 #39), 42% (bubble if 6-4), 18% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 128.1, #161, D2 #36), 39% (bubble if 6-4), 18% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 129.2, #157, D2 #37), 54% (bubble if 5-5), 31% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Last season 133.4