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Rankings
#68 of 104 in Division 2
#16 of 27 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #54 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #69 in D2 (-352 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 40-0 H #530 Sylvania Northview (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 30 (92%), perf. rating 133
08/29 L 14-0 A #199 Clay (2-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 13 (26%), perf. rating 104
09/05 L 48-0 A #26 Whitmer (3-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 40 (1%), perf. rating 104
09/12 L 41-14 H #113 Findlay (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 20 (12%), perf. rating 97
09/19 H #44 Perrysburg (3-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 34 (2%)
09/26 A #196 Napoleon (2-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 17 (14%)
10/03 H #157 Fremont Ross (2-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 20 (10%)
10/10 A #432 Start (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/17 H #501 Bowling Green (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/24 A #263 Springfield (Holland) (2-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 8 (30%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
6.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
12% (likely needs 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.40 ( 5.90-22.70) 65% in, 26% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), North Ridgeville (3-1) 12%
Lose: 6.30 ( 1.20-18.30) 10% in, 2% home, proj. out (#5-out), Fremont Ross (2-2) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 17.10 (15.05-19.85) 100% in, 73% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), St Francis (Toledo) (3-1) 12%
(10%) 5W: 13.10 (10.80-15.75) 82% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 16%
(29%) 4W: 9.15 ( 6.90-12.85) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(42%) 3W: 6.30 ( 4.00- 9.80) out, proj. out
(14%) 2W: 2.90 ( 2.35- 5.85) out, proj. out
( 1%) 1W: 1.20 ( 1.20- 2.30) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWWWW: 17.10 (15.30-18.30) 100% in, 74% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Fremont Ross (2-2) 12%
( 4%) LWLWWW: 13.15 (10.80-15.00) 79% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Fremont Ross (2-2) 26%
( 4%) LLWWWW: 12.70 (10.90-14.90) 82% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), North Ridgeville (3-1) 15%
( 4%) LLWWWL: 9.70 ( 7.45-11.55) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), North Ridgeville (3-1) 35%
(19%) LLLWWW: 9.15 ( 6.90-11.35) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Olmsted Falls (3-1) 40%
(38%) LLLWWL: 6.30 ( 4.00- 8.15) out
(12%) LLLLWL: 2.90 ( 2.35- 4.15) out
( 1%) LLLLLL: 1.20 ( 1.20- 2.30) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 108.3, #307, D2 #68), 12% (likely needs 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 115.6, #248, D2 #58), 25% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 114.0, #264, D2 #60), 23% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 117.0, #236, D2 #54), 32% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 111.8, #261, D2 #56), 30% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 105.9