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Rankings
#18 of 72 in Division 1
#5 of 18 in Region 1
Strength of schedule #59 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #27 in D1 (+28 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 64-0 H #501 Bowling Green (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 36 (95%), perf. rating 140
08/29 L 28-20 A #41 Olentangy (3-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 18 (18%), perf. rating 146
09/05 W 31-0 H #157 Fremont Ross (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 17 (83%), perf. rating 175
09/12 W 45-13 A #263 Springfield (Holland) (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 30 (96%), perf. rating 164
09/19 A #307 Sylvania Southview (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 34 (98%)
09/26 H #530 Sylvania Northview (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/03 H #113 Findlay (3-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 17 (86%)
10/10 A #199 Clay (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/17 H #86 Anthony Wayne (3-1) D2 R6, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/24 A #26 Whitmer (3-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 12 (21%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
25.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R1 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 48% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 25.10 (11.00-32.30) 100% in, 99% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 49%
Lose: 18.20 ( 8.00-28.95) 100% in, 88% home, 16% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), bye 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
(20%) 9W: 30.70 (28.45-32.30) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(49%) 8W: 25.15 (22.95-30.00) 100% home, 55% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 55%
(23%) 7W: 20.58 (18.60-24.95) 100% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#8), John Marshall (1-3) 24%
( 8%) 6W: 16.70 (14.00-21.55) 100% in, 97% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), John Marshall (1-3) 22%
( 1%) 5W: 13.75 (11.60-17.80) 100% in, 68% home, proj. #8 (#5-#10), Jackson (Massillon) (2-2) 17%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(20%) WWWWWW: 30.70 (28.45-32.30) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 2%) WWWWLW: 26.00 (24.30-27.60) 100% home, 86% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 86%
( 1%) WWLWWW: 25.77 (22.95-27.45) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#5), bye 92%
(44%) WWWWWL: 25.15 (22.95-27.45) 100% home, 51% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 51%
( 2%) WWWLWL: 21.65 (19.85-23.25) 100% home, 19% bye, proj. #5 (#4-#8), John Marshall (1-3) 20%
(12%) WWWWLL: 20.50 (18.80-22.65) 100% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#8), John Marshall (1-3) 26%
( 7%) WWLWWL: 20.30 (18.60-23.05) 100% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), John Marshall (1-3) 25%
( 5%) WWLWLL: 16.20 (14.00-18.45) 100% in, 96% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), John Marshall (1-3) 19%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 154.2, #44, D1 #18), appears locked in and likely home, 48% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 154.3, #45, D1 #17), likely in and likely home, 56% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 151.6, #53, D1 #20), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 5-5), 42% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 152.2, #53, D1 #22), likely in, 86% home (maybe if 5-5), 39% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 149.2, #61, D1 #28), 96% (bubble if 3-7), 81% home (maybe if 6-4), 47% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 8-2
Last season 151.2