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Rankings
#63 of 80 in Division 1
#14 of 19 in Region 1
Strength of schedule #65 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #63 in D1 (-300 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 14-6 A #274 Brush (1-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 8 (64%), perf. rating 127
08/28 L 43-33 H #104 Berea-Midpark (2-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 15 (23%), perf. rating 120
09/04 L 32-6 A #66 St Johns Jesuit (3-0) D1 R2, pick: L by 22 (11%), perf. rating 109
09/11 A #362 Lorain (1-2) D1 R1, pick: W by 16 (83%)
09/18 H #88 Strongsville (1-2) D1 R1, pick: L by 20 (11%)
09/25 A #304 Shaker Heights (1-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/02 H #153 Brunswick (2-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/09 H #264 Cleveland Heights (0-3) D1 R1, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/16 A #125 Riverside (Painesville) (1-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/23 H #58 Mentor (2-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 28 (3%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
9.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R1 playoffs
Playoff chances now
67% (bubble if 3-7), 13% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.10 ( 2.50-27.30) 74% in, 15% home, 2% bye, proj. #11 (#1-out), Strongsville (1-2) 13%
Lose: 5.30 ( 1.20-24.80) 29% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Austintown-Fitch (1-1) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 26.45 (24.40-27.30) 100% home, 83% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 83%
( 4%) 7W: 21.00 (18.70-25.30) 100% in, 97% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Brunswick (2-1) 19%
(11%) 6W: 16.65 (13.90-22.00) 100% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Berea-Midpark (2-1) 19%
(19%) 5W: 12.80 ( 9.65-18.80) 99% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Berea-Midpark (2-1) 15%
(24%) 4W: 9.45 ( 6.25-15.20) 87% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Austintown-Fitch (1-1) 15%
(21%) 3W: 7.05 ( 4.15-13.40) 43% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Austintown-Fitch (1-1) 16%
(14%) 2W: 5.25 ( 2.35- 9.65) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Austintown-Fitch (1-1) 19%
( 5%) 1W: 3.60 ( 1.20- 4.50) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWWW: 26.45 (24.40-27.30) 100% home, 83% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 83%
( 5%) WLWWWWL: 16.45 (14.10-19.60) 100% in, 38% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Berea-Midpark (2-1) 20%
( 9%) WLWWWLL: 12.80 (10.40-16.50) 99% in, 7% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Strongsville (1-2) 18%
(13%) WLWLWLL: 8.95 ( 6.25-12.55) 83% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Austintown-Fitch (1-1) 16%
( 9%) WLWLLLL: 7.05 ( 4.65-10.20) 35% in, proj. out (#9-out), Canton McKinley (2-1) 15%
( 6%) WLLLWLL: 6.55 ( 4.30-10.90) 45% in, proj. out (#10-out), Austintown-Fitch (1-1) 18%
( 9%) WLLLLLL: 5.25 ( 2.50- 7.80) 7% in, proj. out (#10-out), Austintown-Fitch (1-1) 19%
( 5%) LLLLLLL: 3.60 ( 1.20- 4.50) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 118.8, #233, D1 #63), 67% (bubble if 3-7), 13% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 121.8, #209, D1 #61), 71% (bubble if 3-7), 24% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 117.2, #231, D1 #61), 62% (bubble if 3-7), 23% home (maybe if 5-5), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 116.0, #231, D1 #60), 53% (bubble if 3-7), 26% home (maybe if 5-5), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 3-7
Last season 123.5