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Rankings
#78 of 107 in Division 3
#21 of 28 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #78 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #40 in D3 (-55 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 33-6 H #81 Hawken (4-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 31 (8%), perf. rating 102
08/30 W 13-6 H #475 John Hay (2-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 91
09/06 W 36-8 H #509 John Marshall (1-3) D1 R1, pick: W by 19 (86%), perf. rating 118
09/12 W 23-6 A #545 Warrensville Heights (1-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 8 (68%), perf. rating 100
09/19 A #195 Holy Name (3-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 27 (5%)
09/26 A #354 Mogadore (3-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/03 A #169 Gilmour Academy (1-3) D3 R9, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/11 H #381 Lutheran East (1-3) D3 R9, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/18 H #492 John F Kennedy (Warren) (0-4) D7 R25, pick: W by 17 (87%)
10/24 A #308 Brush (2-2) D3 R9, pick: L by 15 (16%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
11.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
50% (bubble if 5-5), 18% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.95 ( 8.90-27.00) 92% in, 64% home, 18% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), bye 20%
Lose: 11.25 ( 4.95-23.80) 48% in, 15% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Holy Name (3-1) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 21.60 (18.55-24.65) 100% home, 61% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 61%
( 8%) 7W: 18.50 (15.30-21.60) 100% in, 97% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), bye 13%
(18%) 6W: 15.20 (11.65-18.70) 99% in, 43% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Holy Name (3-1) 14%
(30%) 5W: 11.95 ( 9.00-15.80) 67% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 14%
(31%) 4W: 9.05 ( 6.25-13.00) 9% in, proj. out (#9-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 18%
(11%) 3W: 7.30 ( 4.95-10.10) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) LWLWWW: 18.65 (15.30-21.60) 100% in, 97% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), bye 13%
( 8%) LWLWWL: 15.30 (12.50-18.00) 99% in, 42% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Holy Name (3-1) 16%
( 6%) LLLWWW: 14.95 (12.35-17.55) 99% in, 39% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Holy Name (3-1) 14%
( 6%) LWLLWL: 12.40 (10.20-15.25) 76% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 14%
( 4%) LLLLWW: 12.10 ( 9.35-15.10) 69% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Holy Name (3-1) 16%
(18%) LLLWWL: 11.70 ( 9.00-14.80) 62% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 14%
(26%) LLLLWL: 8.90 ( 6.25-11.55) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 19%
(11%) LLLLLL: 7.30 ( 4.95-10.10) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lexington (3-1) 40%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 95.1, #403, D3 #78), 50% (bubble if 5-5), 18% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 90.1, #425, D3 #78), 36% (bubble if 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 78.9, #513, D3 #92), 19% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 76.5, #531, D3 #92), 20% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 76.7, #529, D3 #93), 17% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 73.8