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Rankings
#81 of 106 in Division 5
#21 of 28 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #64 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #103 in D5 (-790 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 34-14 H #395 Claymont (3-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 5 (59%), perf. rating 64
08/29 L 28-21 A #442 Newcomerstown (2-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 10 (31%), perf. rating 79
09/05 L 34-15 A #481 Malvern (2-2) D7 R25, pick: L by 22 (11%), perf. rating 55
09/12 L 28-3 H #315 Union Local (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 29 (4%), perf. rating 68
09/19 H #629 North (Akron) (1-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 18 (87%)
09/26 H Weir WV (0-3) D4
10/03 H #304 Indian Creek (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/10 A #437 Bellaire (2-2) D5 R17, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/17 H #335 Edison (Richmond) (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/24 A #623 Buckeye Local (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 12 (79%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
2.33 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.78 ( 1.01-13.61) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Lose: 1.31 ( 0.00- 8.12) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 5W: 9.13 ( 5.77-13.42) 37% in, 2% home, proj. out (#8-out)
( 7%) 4W: 5.78 ( 3.63-10.01) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(33%) 3W: 3.44 ( 2.32- 9.10) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(40%) 2W: 2.33 ( 1.31- 6.56) out, proj. out
(16%) 1W: 1.01 ( 0.50- 3.92) out, proj. out
( 3%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWLLWW: 5.93 ( 3.94- 8.33) out
( 4%) WWLWLW: 5.16 ( 3.63- 8.28) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Girard (4-0) 100%
( 5%) WLLWLW: 4.15 ( 3.13- 6.40) out
(24%) WWLLLW: 3.34 ( 2.32- 5.94) out
(29%) WLLLLW: 2.33 ( 1.82- 4.57) out
( 7%) WWLLLL: 2.02 ( 1.51- 4.16) out
(10%) WLLLLL: 1.01 ( 1.01- 2.79) out
( 3%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 70.6, #556, D5 #81), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 71.2, #551, D5 #82), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 68.0, #574, D5 #87), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 69.8, #561, D5 #86), 10% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 81.7, #507, D5 #77), 30% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home (maybe if 8-2), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 71.5