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Rankings
#88 of 105 in Division 5
#25 of 27 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #60 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #78 in D5 (-427 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 43-0 A #292 Claymont (3-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 18 (20%), perf. rating 49
08/28 W 47-14 H #624 East Palestine (1-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 28 (92%), perf. rating 99
09/04 L 54-7 H #403 Strasburg-Franklin (3-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 9 (31%), perf. rating 30
09/11 A #196 Union Local (3-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 43 (1%)
09/18 H #277 Martins Ferry (3-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 37 (1%)
09/25 A #133 Barnesville (3-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 47 (1%)
10/01 A #540 Indian Creek (1-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/09 H #541 Bellaire (1-2) D5 R17, pick: L by 12 (21%)
10/16 A #489 Edison (Richmond) (1-2) D5 R17, pick: L by 22 (7%)
10/23 H #657 Buckeye Local (0-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 24 (94%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
2.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.05 ( 4.80-17.80) 26% in, 3% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Lose: 3.10 ( 0.75-17.35) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Conneaut (3-0) 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 5W: 8.20 ( 5.65-12.35) 23% in, proj. out (#9-out), Conneaut (3-0) 22%
(11%) 4W: 5.90 ( 3.65-10.65) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(29%) 3W: 4.10 ( 2.05- 9.20) out, proj. out
(49%) 2W: 2.35 ( 1.20- 7.55) out, proj. out
( 7%) 1W: 1.85 ( 0.75- 3.45) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LLLWWWW: 7.95 ( 5.65-10.80) 16% in, proj. out (#10-out), Conneaut (3-0) 22%
( 4%) LLLWWLW: 5.95 ( 3.90- 8.55) out
( 4%) LLLLWWW: 5.50 ( 3.65- 8.05) out
(14%) LLLLWLW: 4.10 ( 2.10- 6.45) out
( 9%) LLLWLLW: 4.05 ( 2.20- 6.55) out
( 4%) LLLLLWW: 4.05 ( 2.05- 6.45) out
(48%) LLLLLLW: 2.35 ( 1.20- 4.40) out
( 7%) LLLLLLL: 1.85 ( 0.75- 3.45) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 60.4, #596, D5 #88), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (1-1, 68.4, #567, D5 #84), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 65.1, #585, D5 #87), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 77.1, #515, D5 #76), 25% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 79.7