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Rankings
#59 of 107 in Division 6
#13 of 27 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #30 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #74 in D6 (-260 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 23-6 H #494 East Canton (1-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 22 (16%), perf. rating 103
08/28 L 14-13 H #359 Tuslaw (1-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 28 (8%), perf. rating 97
09/04 H #676 River View (0-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 41 (99%)
09/11 A #454 Northwestern (W. Salem) (2-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 4 (41%)
09/18 H #442 Rittman (2-0) D7 R25, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/25 A #325 Norwayne (0-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 22 (8%)
10/02 A #614 Waynedale (0-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/09 H #404 Dalton (0-2) D7 R25, pick: L by 7 (32%)
10/16 A #227 Smithville (2-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/23 H #241 Hillsdale (2-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 27 (4%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
2.04 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
13% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.13 ( 0.84- 5.32) 13% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Mineral Ridge (2-0) 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 4.42 ( 4.24- 4.76) 100% in, 75% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), United (1-1) 18%
( 6%) 7W: 3.80 ( 3.50- 4.12) 93% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), United (1-1) 19%
(14%) 6W: 3.15 ( 2.92- 3.60) 32% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Mineral Ridge (2-0) 25%
(22%) 5W: 2.58 ( 2.28- 3.06) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(26%) 4W: 2.04 ( 1.72- 2.40) out, proj. out
(24%) 3W: 1.52 ( 1.22- 1.81) out, proj. out
( 5%) 2W: 1.02 ( 0.84- 1.20) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWWLL: 3.72 ( 3.50- 3.94) 89% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Smithville (2-0) 22%
( 8%) WWWLWWLL: 3.12 ( 2.92- 3.42) 26% in, proj. out (#10-out), Mineral Ridge (2-0) 24%
( 7%) WWWLWLLL: 2.64 ( 2.46- 2.92) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Hillsdale (2-0) 50%
( 6%) WLWLWWLL: 2.52 ( 2.27- 2.75) out
( 7%) WWLLWLLL: 2.07 ( 1.88- 2.30) out
( 9%) WLWLWLLL: 2.06 ( 1.85- 2.29) out
(20%) WLLLWLLL: 1.51 ( 1.32- 1.74) out
( 5%) WLLLLLLL: 1.02 ( 0.83- 1.20) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 84.7, #464, D6 #59), 19% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 68.4, #569, D6 #78), 5% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 52.0, #630, D6 #93), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Last season 46.8