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Rankings
#12 of 107 in Division 6
#4 of 27 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #29 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #7 in D6 (+320 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 20-6 H #236 Bishop Ready (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 9 (66%), perf. rating 136
08/29 W 28-0 A #392 Highland (Marengo) (2-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 32 (95%), perf. rating 141
09/05 W 28-19 H #354 Mogadore (3-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 31 (96%), perf. rating 114
09/12 L 35-19 A #266 Smithville (4-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 24 (92%), perf. rating 91
09/19 H #243 Hillsdale (4-0) D7 R27, pick: W by 4 (60%)
09/26 A #624 Northwestern (W. Salem) (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 42 (99%)
10/03 H #524 Rittman (4-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/10 A #186 Norwayne (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/17 H #657 Chippewa (0-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/24 A #552 Waynedale (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 35 (99%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
18.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 93% home (maybe if 6-4), 34% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 19.60 (13.75-24.85) 100% in, 99% home, 53% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#10), bye 53%
Lose: 15.55 (10.15-21.85) 99% in, 81% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), Mineral Ridge (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
(23%) 9W: 22.00 (18.70-24.85) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#8), bye 92%
(43%) 8W: 18.75 (15.60-22.95) 100% in, 99% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 29%
(32%) 7W: 15.50 (12.20-20.20) 100% in, 82% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Mineral Ridge (3-1) 15%
( 3%) 6W: 13.40 (10.15-17.05) 98% in, 36% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Mineral Ridge (3-1) 17%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(23%) WWWWWW: 22.00 (18.70-24.85) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#8), bye 92%
(35%) WWWLWW: 18.80 (15.85-21.55) 100% in, 99% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 30%
( 7%) LWWWWW: 18.45 (15.60-21.85) 100% in, 99% home, 21% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), bye 21%
(29%) LWWLWW: 15.50 (12.20-18.15) 100% in, 81% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Mineral Ridge (3-1) 15%
( 1%) LWLLWW: 12.35 (10.15-14.35) 97% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Wickliffe (4-0) 17%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 118.6, #223, D6 #12), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 6-4), 34% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 130.0, #157, D6 #7), likely in and likely home, 84% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 135.7, #123, D6 #4), likely in and likely home, 89% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 1 (1-0, 134.4, #127, D6 #4), likely in, 97% home, 79% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 130.6, #148, D6 #7), 95% (bubble if 4-6), 88% home (maybe if 6-4), 69% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 9-1
Last season 126.3