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Rankings
#27 of 103 in Division 7
#6 of 25 in Region 25
Strength of schedule #7 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #41 in D7 (-60 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 48-12 A #173 Danville (3-0) D7 R27, pick: W by 10 (68%), perf. rating 74
08/28 L 40-16 H #174 Garaway (3-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 30 (7%), perf. rating 88
09/04 L 30-21 A #382 Mogadore (2-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 86
09/11 A #218 Hillsdale (3-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 28 (5%)
09/18 H #455 Northwestern (W. Salem) (2-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 6 (65%)
09/25 A #418 Rittman (3-0) D7 R25, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/02 H #306 Norwayne (0-3) D5 R18, pick: L by 15 (17%)
10/09 A #429 Chippewa (2-1) D6 R21, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/16 H #633 Waynedale (1-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/23 H #170 Smithville (3-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 29 (3%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
5.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R25 playoffs
Playoff chances now
42% (bubble if 3-7), 18% home (maybe if 4-6), 4% bye (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.55 ( 1.95-17.40) 91% in, 71% home, 29% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 32%
Lose: 4.50 ( 0.00-14.70) 40% in, 16% home, 2% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Independence (2-1) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 13.35 (12.80-15.15) 100% home, 78% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 78%
(10%) 5W: 9.90 ( 9.25-13.40) 100% in, 97% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Monroeville (0-3) 12%
(19%) 4W: 7.45 ( 6.15-10.70) 98% in, 29% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Monroeville (0-3) 13%
(25%) 3W: 5.00 ( 3.70- 8.00) 39% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Mogadore (2-1) 16%
(25%) 2W: 2.80 ( 1.70- 5.90) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(16%) 1W: 0.80 ( 0.80- 4.10) out, proj. out
( 1%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWWWWW: 13.55 (13.00-14.70) 100% home, 82% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 82%
( 9%) LWWLWWL: 7.45 ( 7.20- 9.95) 99% in, 31% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Monroeville (0-3) 16%
( 9%) LWWLLWL: 5.05 ( 4.85- 6.75) 52% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Independence (2-1) 16%
( 8%) LWLLWWL: 4.50 ( 4.40- 6.90) 21% in, proj. out (#9-out), Mogadore (2-1) 18%
(12%) LWLLLWL: 2.45 ( 2.40- 4.45) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Springfield (New Midd.) (1-2) 100%
( 7%) LLLLWWL: 2.45 ( 2.40- 4.10) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), East Canton (2-1) 100%
(15%) LLLLLWL: 0.80 ( 0.80- 1.95) out
( 1%) LLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (0-3, 90.9, #425, D7 #27), 42% (bubble if 3-7), 18% home (maybe if 4-6), 4% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 93.9, #404, D7 #23), 59% (bubble if 3-7), 40% home (likely needs 5-5), 18% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 94.2, #408, D7 #20), 64% (bubble if 3-7), 42% home (likely needs 5-5), 17% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #9 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 115.8, #236, D7 #7), 89% (bubble if 4-6), 74% home (maybe if 5-5), 48% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 7-3
Last season 113.0