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Rankings
#33 of 105 in Division 5
#15 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #20 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #55 in D5 (-183 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 36-21 A #235 Keystone (3-0) D5 R18, pick: W by 25 (87%), perf. rating 98
08/28 L 38-13 H #115 Triway (3-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 21 (15%), perf. rating 97
09/04 L 39-29 H #174 Garaway (3-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 23 (10%), perf. rating 109
09/11 A #418 Rittman (3-0) D7 R25, pick: W by 14 (80%)
09/18 A #633 Waynedale (1-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 40 (99%)
09/25 H #429 Chippewa (2-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 20 (90%)
10/02 A #425 Dalton (0-3) D7 R25, pick: W by 15 (83%)
10/09 H #170 Smithville (3-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/16 A #218 Hillsdale (3-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 15 (16%)
10/23 H #455 Northwestern (W. Salem) (2-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 22 (93%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
9.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
19% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.40 ( 1.75-17.05) 24% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Port Clinton (3-0) 11%
Lose: 4.85 ( 0.00-14.65) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 7W: 16.80 (16.50-17.05) 99% in, 49% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Margaretta (2-1) 9%
(20%) 6W: 12.95 (12.55-16.00) 60% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Archbold (3-0) 13%
(33%) 5W: 9.40 ( 9.00-13.95) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out), Archbold (3-0) 21%
(23%) 4W: 7.20 ( 5.80-10.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(12%) 3W: 4.85 ( 3.45- 8.65) out, proj. out
( 5%) 2W: 2.80 ( 1.50- 5.80) out, proj. out
( 1%) 1W: 0.80 ( 0.35- 3.35) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 6%) WWWWWWW: 16.80 (16.50-17.05) 99% in, 49% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Margaretta (2-1) 9%
( 8%) WWWWWLW: 13.00 (12.60-14.70) 62% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Port Clinton (3-0) 13%
(11%) WWWWLWW: 12.85 (12.55-13.95) 55% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Archbold (3-0) 14%
(26%) WWWWLLW: 9.35 ( 9.05-11.35) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Archbold (3-0) 25%
( 7%) WWWLLLW: 7.75 ( 7.20- 9.35) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Port Clinton (3-0) 100%
( 4%) WWWWLLL: 6.95 ( 6.35- 8.95) out
( 5%) LWWWLLW: 6.35 ( 5.80- 7.85) out
( 1%) LWLLLLL: 0.80 ( 0.80- 1.55) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (0-3, 107.7, #306, D5 #33), 19% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 105.5, #325, D5 #38), 26% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 107.3, #303, D5 #34), 37% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 124.0, #183, D5 #17), 68% (bubble if 6-4), 43% home (maybe if 8-2), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 7-3
Last season 123.3