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Rankings
#18 of 106 in Division 5
#7 of 26 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #37 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #21 in D5 (+145 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 47-27 H #217 St Clairsville (3-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 148
08/29 L 36-14 A #128 Triway (3-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 17 (80%), perf. rating 105
09/05 L 36-35 A #179 Garaway (3-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 8 (33%), perf. rating 127
09/12 W 48-13 A #624 Northwestern (W. Salem) (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 48 (99%), perf. rating 110
09/19 H #524 Rittman (4-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 37 (99%)
09/26 H #552 Waynedale (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/03 A #657 Chippewa (0-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/10 H #223 Dalton (3-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/17 A #266 Smithville (4-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/24 H #243 Hillsdale (4-0) D7 R27, pick: W by 11 (77%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
17.29 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#8 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
97% (bubble if 5-5), 76% home (likely needs 7-3), 29% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.65 ( 7.26-22.04) 98% in, 76% home, 29% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 30%
Based on eventual number of wins
(42%) 8W: 21.23 (18.86-22.04) 100% home, 69% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 69%
(33%) 7W: 17.29 (15.07-21.44) 100% in, 93% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 23%
(19%) 6W: 13.56 (11.69-17.65) 99% in, 20% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 16%
( 6%) 5W: 10.03 ( 8.11-13.87) 63% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 25%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(42%) WWWWWW: 21.23 (18.86-22.04) 100% home, 69% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 69%
(12%) WWWLWW: 17.45 (15.78-18.86) 100% in, 94% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 23%
(10%) WWWWWL: 17.34 (15.83-18.76) 100% in, 94% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 23%
(10%) WWWWLW: 17.04 (15.07-18.51) 100% in, 90% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 25%
( 6%) WWWLWL: 13.86 (12.25-15.23) 99% in, 20% home, proj. #9 (#7-out), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 18%
( 5%) WWWWLL: 13.51 (11.94-14.62) 100% in, 18% home, proj. #10 (#6-#12), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 18%
( 7%) WWWLLW: 13.26 (11.69-15.08) 99% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Genoa Area (3-1) 15%
( 6%) WWWLLL: 10.03 ( 8.11-11.09) 61% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 27%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 125.2, #186, D5 #18), 97% (bubble if 5-5), 76% home (likely needs 7-3), 29% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 3 (1-2, 128.6, #171, D5 #15), 97% (bubble if 5-5), 73% home (likely needs 7-3), 23% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 124.5, #187, D5 #18), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 67% home (maybe if 6-4), 18% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 139.3, #110, D5 #8), likely in, 89% home (maybe if 7-3), 63% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 129.7, #152, D5 #14), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 75% home (maybe if 6-4), 42% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Last season 128.1