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Rankings
#19 of 107 in Division 6
#5 of 27 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #38 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #20 in D6 (+165 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 34-20 H #421 Black River (0-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 28 (90%), perf. rating 110
08/28 W 28-7 A #490 Lucas (1-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 29 (93%), perf. rating 114
09/04 A #484 Loudonville (2-0) D7 R27, pick: W by 28 (94%)
09/11 H #404 Dalton (0-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 24 (92%)
09/18 A #227 Smithville (2-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 4 (40%)
09/25 H #614 Waynedale (0-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 42 (99%)
10/02 H #454 Northwestern (W. Salem) (2-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 28 (96%)
10/09 A #442 Rittman (2-0) D7 R25, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/16 H #325 Norwayne (0-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/23 A #463 Chippewa (1-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 27 (96%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
5.02 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
96% (bubble if 6-4), 78% home (maybe if 8-2), 33% bye (likely needs 10-0)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.00 ( 1.62- 6.05) 97% in, 80% home, 34% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 35%
Lose: 3.88 ( 1.10- 5.34) 74% in, 39% home, 10% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Wickliffe (2-0) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
(28%) 10W: 5.74 ( 5.43- 6.05) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 93%
(35%) 9W: 5.02 ( 4.68- 5.43) 100% in, 98% home, 17% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 17%
(21%) 8W: 4.38 ( 4.07- 4.79) 100% in, 67% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Wickliffe (2-0) 17%
( 9%) 7W: 3.77 ( 3.46- 4.13) 97% in, 6% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), United (1-1) 22%
( 4%) 6W: 3.20 ( 2.92- 3.75) 46% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(28%) WWWWWWWW: 5.75 ( 5.43- 6.05) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 93%
( 4%) WWWWWWLW: 5.06 ( 4.81- 5.34) 100% home, 35% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 35%
(26%) WWLWWWWW: 5.00 ( 4.68- 5.32) 100% in, 97% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Columbiana (2-0) 17%
( 3%) WLLWWWWW: 4.42 ( 4.17- 4.74) 100% in, 77% home, proj. #8 (#5-#10), Wickliffe (2-0) 18%
( 2%) WWLWWWWL: 4.36 ( 4.09- 4.65) 100% in, 52% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), United (1-1) 16%
( 9%) WWLWWWLW: 4.34 ( 4.07- 4.64) 100% in, 65% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), United (1-1) 18%
( 3%) WWLWWLWW: 4.33 ( 4.07- 4.60) 100% in, 61% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), United (1-1) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (2-0, 116.8, #241, D6 #19), 96% (bubble if 5-5), 81% home (maybe if 7-3), 39% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 119.3, #220, D6 #18), 96% (bubble if 5-5), 87% home (maybe if 7-3), 56% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 122.8, #192, D6 #14), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 83% home (maybe if 7-3), 54% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Last season 125.6