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Rankings
#21 of 108 in Division 6
#5 of 28 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #43 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #20 in D6 (+88 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 34-20 H #500 Black River (1-5) D6 R21, pick: W by 28 (90%), perf. rating 98
08/28 W 28-7 A #457 Lucas (3-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 29 (93%), perf. rating 120
09/04 W 55-6 A #462 Loudonville (3-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 28 (94%), perf. rating 150
09/11 W 21-16 H #317 Dalton (2-4) D7 R25, pick: W by 28 (95%), perf. rating 112
09/18 L 28-14 A #205 Smithville (6-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 10 (27%), perf. rating 103
09/25 W 62-7 H #610 Waynedale (1-5) D5 R18, pick: W by 40 (99%), perf. rating 118
10/02 H #515 Northwestern (W. Salem) (2-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/09 A #495 Rittman (3-3) D7 R25, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/16 H #294 Norwayne (3-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/23 A #468 Chippewa (4-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 26 (96%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
18.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#6 seed in R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 92% home (likely needs 8-2), 7% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.85 ( 9.75-20.45) 99% in, 93% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), Grand Valley (4-2) 21%
Lose: 14.90 ( 8.50-17.75) 98% in, 60% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Columbiana (4-2) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
(62%) 9W: 18.30 (16.30-20.45) 100% in, 99% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Grand Valley (4-2) 24%
(33%) 8W: 15.90 (13.95-17.85) 100% in, 91% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Columbiana (4-2) 20%
( 5%) 7W: 13.50 (11.75-15.30) 99% in, 20% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Brookfield (4-2) 21%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(62%) WWWW: 18.30 (16.30-20.45) 100% in, 99% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Grand Valley (4-2) 24%
(28%) WWLW: 15.90 (14.20-17.85) 100% in, 91% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Columbiana (4-2) 20%
( 2%) WLWW: 15.80 (14.10-17.45) 100% in, 88% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Columbiana (4-2) 24%
( 2%) WWWL: 15.70 (13.95-17.85) 100% in, 89% home, proj. #7 (#5-#11), Brookfield (4-2) 23%
( 2%) WWLL: 13.50 (11.90-15.15) 99% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Brookfield (4-2) 22%
( 2%) WLLW: 13.40 (11.75-15.05) 100% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#7-#12), United (4-1) 22%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (5-1, 114.9, #254, D6 #21), likely in, 92% home (likely needs 8-2), 7% bye, proj. #6 at 9-1
Week 5 (4-1, 113.5, #266, D6 #23), likely in, 90% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye, proj. #6 at 9-1
Week 4 (4-0, 113.8, #271, D6 #24), 98% (bubble if 6-4), 80% home (maybe if 8-2), 21% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #6 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 120.6, #218, D6 #17), 98% (bubble if 6-4), 82% home (maybe if 8-2), 28% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #6 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 116.8, #241, D6 #19), 96% (bubble if 5-5), 81% home (maybe if 7-3), 39% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 119.3, #220, D6 #18), 96% (bubble if 5-5), 87% home (maybe if 7-3), 56% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 122.8, #192, D6 #14), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 83% home (maybe if 7-3), 54% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Last season 125.6